Bitcoin's monthly gains have cooled to about 2.2% in the latest window, but many observers see February as a potential inflection point for the largest cryptocurrency. Since 2016, the week ending Feb. 21 has delivered a median return near 8.4%, and BTC has closed higher about 60% of those weeks. With volatility still elevated but gradually moderating, market participants are watching macro signals for signs of renewed risk-on appetite within crypto markets. Key takeaways February has historically produced a strong median weekly return for BTC, roughly around 7%, often outpacing October’s seasonal strength. Early February performance has historically warned of corrective periods in 2018, 2022, and 2025, when the month foreshadowed tougher months ahead. Improving macro cues, including softer volatility and upbeat earnings guidance, could tilt flows toward BTC as capital reallocates in risk-on environments. The long-run ceiling for BTC, according to the Bitcoin Decay Channel, ...

For years, Bitcoin ( BTC ) traders have watched its price relative to gold (XAU) for clues on when BTC bottoms in US dollar terms. But in 2026, that BTC-to-gold signal is starting to look less dependable as macro dynamics shift and the ratio migrates away from previously established benchmarks. The latest turn comes as gold rallies and risk-off sentiment intensifies, pressing BTC/XAU toward levels that previously signaled a potential bottom. Market participants are weighing a mix of long-running trendlines, dynamic macro catalysts, and evolving appetite for defensive assets as they navigate a year that has already challenged conventional BTC–gold relationships. Key takeaways : Bitcoin remains undervalued versus gold and has slipped below its Power Law trend, a long-run model some analysts use to gauge BTC’s fair value over time. BTC/XAU is already under the 200-2W EMA that historically lined up with bottoms in BTC/USD cycles. Gold’s next move is likely to dictate whether BTC enjoys a r...

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traders were watching a confluence of momentum signals that historically foreshadow sizable moves, but on-chain data suggests a cautious path ahead as market participants lean defensive. A fresh cross between momentum indicators tied to major yield curves has rekindled optimism for a breakout, yet spot activity and fund flows point to lingering headwinds. The juxtaposition of bullish signals with a tepid immediate bid underscores a market that could take time to reassert upside momentum, even as investors weigh macro risks and policy posture. Key takeaways Bitcoin surged 600% in 2021 after a similar bullish cross was confirmed, a pattern observed by market observers and cited as an enduring bull-run signal. Onchain data points to persistent sell-side pressure, suggesting that a price recovery could be slower than hoped as market participants adopt a risk-off stance. Spot Bitcoin ETF weekly net flows flipped from a $1.6 billion inflow to a $1.7 billion outflo...

Bitcoin market dynamics are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened macro uncertainty, with seasoned traders deploying risk controls even as traditional assets rally. The week ahead features a busy slate of earnings for global tech giants and a closely watched monetary policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. While gold climbs to fresh record highs, Bitcoin appears to be ceding ground to safety plays, signaling a nuanced balance between digital-asset caution and macro-driven risk sentiment. Key takeaways Professional traders are prioritizing downside protection, signaling a cautious risk-off stance rather than a durable tilt toward fresh bullish bets. Gold hit record highs, underscoring a shift toward traditional safe havens as concerns about the U.S. economic backdrop intensify. Bitcoin ( CRYPTO: BTC ) fluctuated, rising about 1.5% after a retest of the $86,000 level as markets await the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown and key policy decisions....

Bitcoin under pressure ahead of a pivotal macro week Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded into Sunday’s close amid a chorus of macro catalysts that have traders weighing a potential shift in risk sentiment. Data show BTC/USD slipping around 1.6% on the day, topping out near $87,471 on Bitstamp as investors digest a slate of events that could influence liquidity and volatility through the end of January. The pullback comes as futures and spot markets brace for a string of data releases and policy decisions that have historically driven outsized moves in the crypto space. Longer-dated risk is anchored by a combination of political and monetary headwinds. Crystallizing concerns about a possible U.S. government shutdown and ongoing debate over tariff policy have traders revisiting the notion that macro shocks could spill into crypto markets. As the Kobeissi Letter highlighted, a shutdown scenario and tariff threats were being watched closely by market participants, with the potential to amplify ri...

The winter storm sweeping across much of the United States has forced adjustments in energy consumption by Bitcoin mining operators, with Foundry USA—home to the largest Bitcoin mining pool by hash power—scaling back its output by roughly 60% since Friday. The curtailment translates to a loss of about 200 exahashes per second (EH/s) of hashing power, according to TheMinerMag, and has pushed the pool’s current total to around 198 EH/s, a level that accounts for about 23% of the world’s mining capacity. The slowdown in production has coincided with longer than typical block intervals, as operators throttle activity to ease stress on electrical grids during a period of extreme weather. The episode highlights how crypto miners can function as a flexible demand side resource, potentially stabilizing grids when energy systems are stretched. Foundry USA’s reduced output mirrors a broader pattern observed among U.S. miners amid Winter Storm Fern, which has forced a number of facilities to adju...

Introduction To illustrate price dynamics, a secondary data point from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin has not breached the $100,000 threshold in months, underscoring a broader risk-off tendency even as some market participants await a more definitive trend reversal. The combination of persistent outflows and subdued price action has shifted attention to sentiment indicators that capture how participants are reacting as liquidity conditions tighten and macro narratives evolve. The Index has been in “Extreme Fear” territory since Wednesday. Source: alternative.me The focus on spot ETF flows lies in measuring retail appetite and gauging whether a near-term bottom could emerge for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, even as near-term risk sentiment remains fragile. The crypto market is in a “phase of uncertainty,” says Santiment The broader crypto market has been drifting lower in recent sessions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an “Extreme Fear” score of 25 in its latest update, s...

The latest data shows Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) nodes signaling support for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), a temporary soft fork intended to curb the amount of data carried within transactions at the consensus level. Measured signals indicate 2.38% of detectable nodes backing the proposal, with 583 of 24,481 nodes running the BIP-110 implementation, The Bitcoin Portal reports. The initiative centers on a short-term data cap rather than a permanent change to protocol rules, reflecting a broader debate over data storage, network costs, and decentralization in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Key Takeaways 2.38% of Bitcoin nodes are signaling support for BIP-110, out of 24,481 reachable nodes. 583 nodes are running the soft-fork implementation, with Bitcoin Knots identified as the primary software for this proposal. BIP-110 enforces a 34-byte limit on transaction outputs and an 83-byte cap on OP_RETURN data, applying for a one-year period with potential extension or modification. The propo...

Introduction Bitcoin faces a difficult near-term path as macro uncertainty and a lack of decisive catalysts temper upside momentum. Market odds suggest the digital asset may remain below the $100,000 level through the first half of 2026, even as long-term holders and institutional players weigh strategic bets. A confluence of prediction-market signals and on-chain indicators paints a cautious picture for BTC, with traders eyeing potential volatility later in the year but increasingly expecting a protracted period of consolidation. Key Takeaways BTC price has a less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before Feb. 1. Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June. Bitcoin’s price will likely drop below Strategy’s cost basis. Market expectations for macro catalysts remain sparse, keeping BTC in a rangebound regime for now. Tickers mentioned: $BTC, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) Sentiment: Bearish Price impact: Negative. The narrative points to ongoing downside risk...

Introduction Global adoption of cryptocurrency continues to unfold at uneven speeds, driven by regional economic conditions, financial inclusion, and the depth of existing financial infrastructure. PwC’s Global Crypto Regulation Report 2026 notes that, even though crypto networks are borderless in theory, practical uptake varies widely by region. As the United States accelerates its crypto initiatives, propelled by a policy environment seen as more favorable to institutions, the momentum underscores how adoption is becoming less about novelty and more about integration into traditional financial systems. Key Takeaways Crypto adoption remains highly regional, with payments, remittances, savings, and tokenization expanding at different paces across markets. Institutional interest has moved from peripheral engagement to core infrastructure, influencing governance, resilience, and market norms. Despite rising institutional demand, analysts caution that this may not translate into sharp pri...

Introduction X is poised to roll out Starterpacks, a new onboarding feature designed to help newcomers jump into topic-based communities by following curated lists of accounts tied to specific interests, including cryptocurrencies. Product lead Nikita Bier has said the tool will go live in a few weeks after months of compiling top voices across more than 1,000 categories. The launch aims to streamline discovery and engagement, a long-standing challenge for users new to the platform. Key Takeaways X is introducing Starterpacks to onboard users via interest-driven account curation across thousands of topics. The feature aggregates top creators from diverse niches to help newcomers find valuable follows quickly. Starterpacks builds on similar concepts already deployed by Bluesky and Threads, signaling a broader trend toward interest-based discovery. Industry commentary frames the initiative as an attempt to counter stagnation in engagement and unlock deeper niche conversations. Tickers me...