Momentum for the CLARITY Act in the US Senate has cooled sharply after a brief optimism spike on Polymarket. Odds that the bill would become law this year climbed the day before, then fell again on Monday as Democrats raised concerns that the latest Republican proposal still does not satisfy their conditions—particularly around ethics enforcement. Republicans have reportedly offered revised language that expands ethics provisions, and Polymarket had earlier reflected that shift with odds rising to around 35%. By Monday, however, traders saw the prospects weaken, with the odds dropping as low as 16%. The outcome matters not just for legislative timing: the CLARITY Act would influence how the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) divide oversight responsibilities across the crypto market. Key takeaways Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing this year fell sharply again on Monday, after having spiked earlier. Democrats inv...
Betting markets are cooling fast on the odds that the US Senate will move the CLARITY Act forward this year, after Polymarket participants briefly pushed the probability higher following a newly revised Republican proposal—only to cut back sharply once Democrats signaled they were still not satisfied with the ethics language. According to Polymarket’s tracker for the event “CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026,” the odds rose to as high as 35% after the GOP circulated a revised draft the previous day, including expanded ethics provisions. By Monday, the probability had fallen again, reportedly dipping as low as 16% as reservations about the updated text intensified. The bill would require 60 votes to advance, and a failure to clear procedural hurdles on Tuesday could delay the legislation that would shape how US regulators—specifically the SEC and CFTC—divide oversight for crypto-related products. Key takeaways Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing this year fell from around 35%...