Revolut has taken another step in its push to expand regulated crypto access in the Middle East, receiving in-principle approval from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to provide crypto-related services in the United Arab Emirates. In a notice shared on Wednesday, the UK-based financial group said VARA’s approval follows permission from the Central Bank of the UAE for payment activities. The regulator’s green light, Revolut added, would allow the company to offer broker-dealer, asset management and investment, and exchange services to users in the UAE—via the Revolut app and its Revolut X trading venue. Key takeaways VARA granted Revolut in-principle approval for multiple virtual asset business lines in the UAE. The approval comes after the UAE Central Bank cleared Revolut for payment-related activities. Revolut says its UAE rollout will support users buying, selling, and holding digital assets through the app and Revolut X. Revolut’s UAE expansion follows its ...
Prediction markets are attracting mainstream attention—and they’re also raising new questions about how their mechanics can shape market behavior. A new research paper from Stanford University and Singapore Management University argues that Polymarket’s short-horizon Bitcoin contracts can create incentives for sophisticated traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement, at a potential cost to retail participants. The study focuses on Polymarket wagers that settle after five minutes based on Bitcoin’s price relative to a fixed threshold. Because settlement depends on Chainlink price feeds tied to the end-of-window spot price, the authors say traders can profit by influencing the spot market immediately before the contract resolves. Key takeaways Settlement based on a five-minute spot price can encourage end-of-window price manipulation. Researchers observed larger order-flow spikes shortly before settlement and quick price reversals after. The paper estimates about $1.28 mil...