Bitcoin continued its recent downward spiral on Thursday, falling below the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages- a technical indicator that traders tend to monitor to determine the initial trend inversion.
Bitcoin was the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, trading at about 91,000, a minor decline of about 5 percent in the last 24 hours when this report was written.
Intersection of these long-term moving averages commonly known as a death cross has attracted more interests among market analysts. Ali Martinez reports that each of such crosses that occurred within the last year has eventually turned down, bringing back price strength.
Nonetheless, Martinez warned a comparable formation in 2022 was a precursor to a prolonged decline, and that ongoing price behaviour was almost identical to the previous structure in both pace and manner.
Bitcoin also trades at a price below its MVRV mean price which is an indicator of how much the market value is over or under the asset value to determine the over or under-value of an asset. BTC has historically been in the territory of undervalued due to the historical readings of the long-term of the model.
Historical Patterns Signal Key Downside Targets Ahead
Martinez marked three lower price zones that can occur in focus in case the existing weakness becomes worse. These regions are associated with historical deviations and observed historical prices which were a major mark on a bottom of the market.
Over the past year, every death cross has marked a local bottom for Bitcoin $BTC, but in 2022, it kicked off a full bear market.
A new death cross is forming now… So which one is it this time: local bottom or bear market? pic.twitter.com/tBnKNngunN
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 18, 2025
In another study, Martinez did a review of previous Bitcoin cycles. He reported that the two highest points in the bull-market in 2017 and 2021 were succeeded by a bear market of 364 days and 77 days, respectively, and the maxims were 84 and 77, respectively.
In case the present cycle was to reach a peak in October 2025, he said, historic trends would indicate that the market should find a bottom sometime around October 2026.
Meanwhile, On-chain data show an increase in transfers to exchanges in Bitcoin- On-chain records show an increase in transfers to exchanges, some analysts see this as a sign of mounting sell-side pressure.
A number of market observers believe that the technical environment can be indicating the possibility of prolonged weakness in the future.
Bullish Extension Still Possible Ahead
That is not the opinion of all the analysts. Egrag Crypto also claimed that overreliance on moving-average trends could be a trap to traders, with the situation in 2021 being vastly different. The analyst noted that the averages which have been in use over a long period are no longer good indicators.
As Egrag notes, the market is structurally sound at above the 21-week EMA and the recent pullback can be viewed as a retest of long-term support and not the beginning of a further decline.
The bullish extension to 1.618 Fibonacci level is identified by the analyst with the possibility of extension should the support remain.
#BTC – Path to Fib 1.618 ($175K) 🚀:
🏳️Fitting Narrative:
▫️Many people keep forcing 2021 fractals onto this cycle just to confirm their bearish bias. Fitting charts into a narrative is one of the biggest traps in TA.
▫️Even @intocryptoverse (Benjamin Cowen) had the whole… pic.twitter.com/lP89fEyT9W
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 18, 2025
With Bitcoin teetering on an important crossroad, traders are divided on whether the market is presenting the beginning of a long downturn or is on the point of another surge up.
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