Bitcoin Open Interest at 2024 Lows: Is TradFi Abandoning BTC?

Bitcoin has struggled to stay above the $72,000 mark over the past week, as traders weigh whether a renewed institutional bid is at hand or merely a temporary pause in a broader risk-off cycle. While price action remains choppy, a dramatic shift sits in the derivatives market: aggregate open interest on Bitcoin futures fell to $34 billion in USD terms—the lowest level in months and the steepest decline since November 2024. Yet when measured in BTC, open interest sits around 502,450 BTC, suggesting that the appetite for leverage hasn’t collapsed and that the unwind is not uniform across asset denominations. Over the past two weeks, forced liquidations totaled about $5.2 billion, underscoring the fragility of long bets in a mood of caution and uncertainty.

Key takeaways

• BTC futures open interest dropped to $34 billion, a 28% decline from 30 days earlier; BTC-denominated open interest remains roughly flat at BTC 502,450, implying ongoing leverage demand despite lower USD exposure.


• Bearish leverage signals surfaced as risk appetite cooled: forced liquidations of roughly $5.2 billion in the last two weeks point to sustained volatility and risk management pressure.


• Weak US job data fed concerns about the macro backdrop: the US Labor Department reported 181,000 jobs added in 2025, a number seen as soft against expectations, while gold reclaimed the $5,000 level and equities sit near highs, complicating the narrative for Bitcoin.


• Bitcoin options markets flashed caution: the 30-day delta skew for BTC jumped to about 22%, with put options trading at a premium, signaling a clear tilt toward downside hedging among professional traders.


• On the demand side, Bitcoin ETFs continued to trade thousands of BTC daily, with roughly $5.4 billion of average daily volume across US-listed funds, underscoring that institutional interest remains visible even amid uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) has faced repeated hesitations around the $72,000 level as investors await clearer catalysts from the macro environment. The sheer contrast between price stability in select risk assets—gold rebounding past the $5,000 threshold and the S&P 500 hovering near record territory—and the weakness seen in BTC’s derivatives environment has intensified questions about whether Bitcoin is decoupling from traditional markets or simply pausing before the next leg of a broader risk-off cycle. The immediate concern is whether weak job data will push the Federal Reserve toward earlier or more aggressive easing, which would, in turn, influence capital flows across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data on open interest paints a nuanced picture. While USD-denominated OI has slid, the BTC-denominated measure suggests that market participants still seek leverage, albeit with tighter risk controls. Some traders attribute part of the USD OI decline to liquidations that amplified through the market in recent weeks, highlighting a landscape where risk management tools are actively trimming exposure. The tension between a calmer price backdrop and a more defensive sentiment in the derivatives space underscores the complexity of the current setup for Bitcoin.

In the background, the labor market remains a critical flashpoint. The US Labor Department’s latest weekly data indicated softer payroll growth, with an uptick in initial claims not far from pandemic-era levels of uncertainty. While the White House has argued that immigration policy has reduced the number of job openings the economy needs to fill, the broader narrative remains that slower growth could push the Fed toward rate cuts sooner than anticipated. This potential for looser financial conditions could, in theory, be supportive for risk assets, including Bitcoin, but the actual market reaction has been restrained and uneven across sectors.

From a historical perspective, the market’s sensitivity to macro indicators is not new for Bitcoin. The 52% drawdown seen in March 2020 occurred amid a broad global shock to economic activity and a surge in uncertainty, and the subsequent policy response helped restore liquidity and drive a notable risk-on phase. Today’s environment—where equities have held near highs while volatility remains elevated—presents a similar but more nuanced backdrop. If growth risks intensify and the Fed signals an accommodative stance ahead of expectations, the cost of capital for both companies and consumers could ease, potentially raising the odds of a renewed appetite for riskier assets, including BTC. The current mix suggests that traders are weighing both macro signals and on-chain indicators as they look for directional clarity.

The options market paints a more conservative picture than equity traders might prefer. The BTC options delta skew at Deribit climbed to approximately 22% on Thursday, indicating that put options are trading at a premium. Historically, a skew in that range signals a protective stance among market participants and a greater reluctance to embrace upside risk without sufficient hedges. By contrast, the lack of a clear appetite for bullish leverage reinforces the sense that the market remains vulnerable to negative catalysts, even as some investors watch for reasons to re-engage with long positions.

Another critical data point is the appetite for exchange-traded products tied to Bitcoin. Despite the volatility signals from the futures market, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have maintained solid daily volumes, averaging around $5.4 billion. This level of activity suggests that institutional demand has not dried up, even if price action and the structure of the futures market reflect a more cautious stance. The divergence between robust ETF trading and weaker leverage indicators highlights the complexity of the current market regime and the difficulty of predicting the next major inflection point for Bitcoin.

In sum, the market’s current stance combines a cautious, risk-off tilt with ongoing, albeit selective, institutional participation. The near-term trajectory of Bitcoin will likely hinge on evolving macro data—particularly the pace of payroll growth and inflation trends—and how effectively the Fed communicates its policy path. Traders who expect a rapid reacceleration in risk appetite may face headwinds if macro data disappoints further, while any shift toward clearer economic strength or dovish policy cues could catalyze a re-pricing in both equities and crypto.

Why it matters

The divergence between price performance and leverage demand is a meaningful signal for market participants. If Bitcoin can sustain a movement higher with steady or improving leverage demand, it could point to renewed institutional confidence and a potential re-rating of BTC as a risk-on asset, especially if macro conditions align with looser financial conditions. Conversely, persistent weakness in the labor market and a cautious options market could keep downside risk elevated, making downside hedges a persistent theme for professional traders. For developers and ecosystem participants, the current climate emphasizes the need for robust risk management tools, clearer on-chain signals, and improved liquidity infrastructure to withstand a more volatile macro backdrop.

For traders and investors, the key takeaway is to monitor the interaction between macro signals and market microstructure. The presence of solid ETF trading volumes indicates that institutions remain engaged, even as futures markets signal caution. This dynamic could lengthen the time needed for a decisive breakout, suggesting a period of range-bound activity with sharp snaps if new data or policy developments shift sentiment abruptly.

What to watch next

• Upcoming US payroll data releases and inflation metrics that could alter rate-hike expectations and liquidity dynamics.


• Comments from Federal Reserve officials or changes in policy guidance that might signal a shift in monetary conditions.


• Changes in BTC futures open interest and funding rates across major platforms, to assess whether leverage appetite is re-emerging or remaining subdued.


• Bitcoin ETF flow developments and any notable shifts in daily volumes that could indicate persistent institutional involvement.


• Derivatives metrics, including delta skew and implied volatility, to detect evolving risk sentiment among professional traders.

Sources & verification

• Open interest and price data for BTC futures from CoinGlass.


• BTC annualized funding rate data from Laevitas.ch.


• Deribit 30-day options delta skew (via Laevitas) showing a 22% premium to puts.


• US job data from the US Labor Department; payroll figures referenced in the article.


• US policy and immigration-related labor discussions as reported by BBC.

Bitcoin leverage signals and macro cues

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has faced a careful balance between resilience in some sectors of the market and caution in others. The latest readings show a split:USD-denominated open interest has retreated, while BTC-denominated exposure remains comparatively steady, underscoring ongoing demand for leverage even as risk sentiment throughout broader markets has cooled. The pullback in futures open interest comes amid a backdrop of soft payroll data and a policy backdrop that could tilt toward looser financial conditions if growth falters. In this environment, the direction for Bitcoin will hinge on whether macro developments translate into clearer catalysts for risk-taking or a renewed risk-off impulse that drives profits to the sidelines. The dynamic illustrates why traders are paying close attention to how traditional markets behave in response to economic data, and why the crypto market remains highly sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment changes.

Market participants should note that ETF volumes remain a meaningful barometer of institutional involvement. While futures markets may show caution, the sustained level of average daily trading in Bitcoin-linked ETFs points to a persistent base of liquidity and a willingness among large players to maintain exposure. This dichotomy—between derivatives signals and ETFs activity—helps explain why Bitcoin’s near-term path remains uncertain, with potential for both pullbacks and selective strength depending on how macro data evolves and how policy expectations shift in response.

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