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Breaking: CFTC Defends Prediction Markets, Challenges State Crackdowns



Key Insights



  • CFTC asserts federal control over prediction markets, countering state gambling claims.

  • Prediction markets offer economic hedging and information aggregation value to society.

  • Clear federal rules spur U.S. crypto innovation and limit fragmented state enforcement.


CFTC Files Amicus Brief to Protect Prediction Markets


The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed an amicus curiae ("friend of the court") brief to defend its authority over prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, amid a rising wave of state enforcement actions. In an X post, CFTC Chair Mike Selig highlighted that prediction markets are under federal jurisdiction, not state oversight, and serve legitimate economic purposes.


Federal Authority vs. State Crackdowns


Selig noted that prediction markets have been regulated by the CFTC for over 20 years and serve a real purpose in the U.S. economy. Despite the crackdowns, the United States remains a global leader in financial markets as it approaches its 250th anniversary.

These platforms are derivatives markets, where a user can hedge commercial risks and offer valuable insights to society. States such as Massachusetts claim that sport-themed contracts transform these platforms into unlawful gambling activities, prompting Polymarket to file a federal jurisdiction suit.

Prediction Markets Drive Risk Management and Market Insights


Prediction markets help increase economic efficiency by pooling information and providing risk-management facilities. Selig added that such markets serve as a significant countercheck to media narratives as well, offering society more data-driven information. The CFTC's involvement ensures legal clarity and can influence court decisions that may shape the future of U.S. markets.

Federal Oversight: Key to Crypto Innovation and Clarity


Exchanges such as Coinbase and Crypto.com, which offer prediction-style products, are under scrutiny by state regulators. Under the CLARITY Act, the proposed legislation would explicitly separate regulatory jurisdiction, with the CFTC regulating crypto-asset commodities and the Securities and Exchange Commission regulating digital securities. CLARITY Act

Industry leaders: Tyler Winklevoss described the filing as "huge," and Senator Bernie Moreno emphasized the need for a clear regulatory picture when it comes to innovation in the United States.

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