Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have cooled after a run of elevated profitability and aggressive selling, suggesting a potential valuation reset rather than a definitive bottom. In the latest data reads, investor profitability has drifted back toward the long-run mean, while spot order flow shows signs of calmer unloading even as trading activity remains subdued. The interplay between valuation metrics and liquidity conditions is shaping expectations for when genuine spot demand could re-emerge and whether that would accompany a sustained trend reversal. Across the metrics, there is a defensively postured market rather than a clear pivot higher, at least for now.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) has normalized after previously trading at extremes, signaling a shift back toward historical baselines rather than an overt undervaluation.
- Realized capitalization declined to about $1.09 trillion from a peak near $1.12 trillion in November 2025, reflecting roughly $33 billion in on-chain value leaving the network.
- Coins aged three to six months now represent 25.9% of the supply, the largest cohort in the dataset, indicating a substantial portion of holders purchased higher and are underwater on many positions.
- Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, while spot trading volume slipped to $6 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to thinner participation and a more cautious posture among traders.
- Bitcoin has remained range-bound around $62,000–$64,000, suggesting supply absorption could pick up pace only if spot participation and risk appetite recover from current levels.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. On-chain signals suggest a balanced view rather than a clear, imminent move higher or lower.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of a mean-reverting valuation backdrop and thinner spot activity argues for patience until clearer demand signals emerge.
Market context: The data aligns with a broader phase of cautious liquidity in crypto markets, where on-chain metrics and macro- and risk-off sentiment influence how quickly fresh spot demand can materialize. While some coins' outflows have stabilized, the absence of a decisive upshift in participation keeps near-term catalysts subdued.
Why it matters
The evolving on-chain picture matters because it reframes the risk-reward calculus for Bitcoin holders and potential entrants. A move back toward the long-run mean in MVRV implies that the market is not yet deeply undervalued, even as some segments of investors have capitulated in the sense of exiting positions near peak prices. The retrace in realized capitalization reinforces the notion that capital has been reallocated away from high-cost entrants, a behavior consistent with risk-off dynamics rather than aggressive accumulation.
From a supply-demand perspective, the aging cohort — coins held for three to six months — being the largest on record signals that much of the newly minted supply may be sitting underwater. That concentration creates a potential for a more pronounced impact if macro conditions or on-chain signals improve, but it also poses a risk: a wave of unprofitable sellers could re-emerge if price pressure intensifies. The literature around realized cap and MVRV suggests caution, as movements toward positive momentum have historically required renewed, broad-based demand rather than a few strong rallies.
On the liquidity side, the improvement in spot CVD alongside a drop in trading volume paints a portrait of restrained selling pressure rather than a sudden flood of buy orders. In prior cycles, periods where CVD tightened and price action stabilized often foreshadow a bottom, but only when participation recovers meaningfully. In this cycle, BTC has held within a relatively narrow corridor, which implies the market is digesting recent action rather than signaling an imminent breakout.
Analysts have pointed to a neutral-to-defensive posture in the current regime. The data does not indicate a forced capitulation, but it also stops short of confirming the onset of a sustainable upturn. The resulting stance mirrors a broader crypto market landscape where liquidity remains episodic, and traders await clearer macro cues and on-chain signals before reestablishing aggressive exposure.
In related analyses, researchers have flagged similar themes in other data points. For instance, discussions around excessive loss realization have highlighted potential pressure points that could push BTC below certain thresholds, while other research has underscored the possibility of a fair-value gap guiding price targets in different market environments. Taken together, these threads reinforce a cautious approach to near-term positioning until volatility and participation trends tilt decisively in favor of bulls.
What to watch next
- BTC price stability within the $62k–$64k range and any sustained breakout above or below these levels.
- Momentum in realized capitalization — whether the roughly $33 billion drawdown since November 2025 begins to reverse as new capital re-enters the market.
- The share of the supply held by the 3–6 month cohort and any shifts toward older or younger age bands, which could signal changing holder behavior.
- On-chain liquidity signals, particularly if spot volume begins to rebound from current lows and CVD moves toward positive territory.
- Any regulatory or institutional developments that could influence risk sentiment and bid/offer dynamics in spot markets.
Sources & verification
- On-chain profitability and MVRV normalization observations attributed to expert commentary on X, including excerpts from Chris Beamish.
- Realized capitalization levels and monthly change data tracked by on-chain analytics datasets (noting the $1.09 trillion level and the $33 billion decline from the November 2025 peak).
- Spot CVD and trading volume figures, including the move from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million and the drop in spot volume from $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion.
- Analyses describing the distribution of coins by age, with the 3–6 month cohort comprising 25.9% of supply.
- Related studies and articles cited in the original material for context on potential price implications and fair-value considerations.
Bitcoin valuation indicators in focus
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been navigating a delicate balance between on-chain fundamentals and the psychology of risk markets. The normalization of MVRV away from extreme deviations suggests that investors are no longer chasing outsized upside with the same intensity as earlier in the cycle, while realized cap has cooled after peaking in late 2025. The 30-day realized cap is down about 2.26%, signaling that capital outflows have persisted, even as some long-term holders remain reluctant to surrender positions wholesale.
The market’s price behavior in the $62,000 to $64,000 zone has become a focal point. In many periods when CVD trends toward stability and the bid-ask dynamics thin out, price action tends to consolidate before the next leg — if there is one — depends on the injection of fresh demand. The current mix of data implies a neutral stance on near-term direction, with the potential for a more decisive move only if spot participation and new inflows pick up meaningfully.
These dynamics illuminate how market participants are weighing risk, returns, and capital preservation in an environment where on-chain signals can diverge from short-term price action. While the trajectory remains uncertain, the analytical framework suggests that bulls will need a sustained improvement in on-chain demand and liquidity to push BTC beyond a fresh milestone, beyond the immediate range that has defined recent trading sessions.
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