Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price continued to consolidate near $68,000 on Tuesday, with market dynamics showing a split between seasoned holders and a newer wave of large traders. While the oldest addresses remain comfortably in the black, the latest cohort of whales is confronting material unrealized losses, a pattern that could press the price lower if selling accelerates. In this environment, on-chain metrics point to redistribution rather than awakening capitulation, even as warnings from traders and analysts circulate about the potential for continued downside if momentum deteriorates.
At the core of the discussion is the distribution of Bitcoin across wallet cohorts. Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC control 4.483 million BTC in total. Among these, 1.287 million BTC (28.7%) belong to the short-term holder (STH) category, while 3.196 million BTC (71.3%) are held by long-term holders (LTH). The contrast is stark: STH coins carry a realized price of $88,494, which translates into a 22% unrealized loss at current prices, whereas LTH coins sit with a realized price of $41,626 and remain about 65% in profit. This asymmetry underscores how recent entrants are feeling the pressure while older capital maintains a substantial cushion against macro and cycle-driven declines.
The evolving calculus among these groups is central to the near-term trajectory. Analysts note that as long as Bitcoin trades above the LTH realized price of $41,626, the market shows redistribution rather than a wholesale capitulation event. In other words, the dominant sentiment hinges on whether the price can sustain levels above that structural marker while newer holders work through losses. The longer-term holders, by contrast, still enjoy a robust profitability profile despite the pullbacks seen in other parts of the cycle. A visualization of the realized prices for new and old whales helps illuminate the divide between cohorts and the potential for future retracements to test support levels.
The macro scene has also been shaping the on-chain narrative. On the supply side, the Binance whale influx ratio—an indicator measuring the share of the largest inflows relative to total inflows—rose to 0.62 from 0.4 over a two-week window to mid-February. That uptick signals a growing likelihood of whale-driven sell-side activity concentrated on the exchange, a dynamic that can amplify price softness during periods of volatility. In tandem, observers have pointed to specific high-visibility episodes of whale movement; the so-called Hyperunit whale, identified by some researchers as Garrett Jin, allegedly moved close to 10,000 BTC onto Binance, a transfer that further feeds the sense of outsized, concentrated selling pressure among the top addresses.
The long-term versus short-term tension also shows up in profitability metrics. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for LTH coins has dipped to 0.88, a sign that some coins are being sold at a loss. By contrast, the monthly average SOPR sits at 1.09, and the annual average remains elevated at 1.87, indicating that, on average, LTHs have remained profitable over longer time horizons despite interim drawdowns. In the risk-tolerant segment of the market, some veterans point to the resilience of the longer-cycle cohort, arguing that profitability remains intact even as near-term price action tests support and liquidity levels.
Adding nuance to the sentiment, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson highlighted that the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) stands at 0.36, which implies that unrealized profits remain positive. Some analysts observe that in previous cycles, cycle bottoms tended to crystallize only after NUPL turned negative, suggesting that Bitcoin may require another dip to confirm capitulation among the LTH cohorts before a durable bottom is formed.
Beyond the numbers, the market faces a number of crosscurrents. A related angle compares the price trajectory to on-chain support levels and realized-price baselines. The critical hindsight point remains the $41,626 realized price for LTH coins; as long as BTC stays above that threshold, data indicate redistribution rather than a structural breakdown. This interpretation aligns with broader market observations that liquidity and risk appetite can tilt toward higher volatility during periods of on-chain reallocation, even as the long-run capacity for profitability endures among the largest holders.
Related: Ray Dalio’s world order warning revives case for Bitcoin as neutral money
BTC whale deposits increase as pressure on long-term holders builds
The on-chain narrative is further reinforced by the rise in whale inflows observed on Binance. The whale inflow ratio, which tracks the relative share of the ten largest deposits against total inflows, climbed to 0.62 from 0.4 between February 2 and February 15. A higher ratio is often interpreted as a signal that whale-driven selling pressure is rising, especially as price remains tethered near a multi-decade high. The data underscore that a portion of the recent selling pressure is concentrated among the largest players, potentially ebbing and surging in response to market risk sentiment and macro headlines.
Observers have flagged ongoing large-position activity in the ecosystem, including notable transfers that indicate a subset of the largest holders are rebalancing or reallocating risk. The on-chain complexity remains a reminder that a handful of mega-wallets can influence short-term liquidity and price discovery even in a market that otherwise enjoys strong macro support.
The market context remains mixed: while longer-term profitability endures for many investors, the near-term risk is skewed toward upside-downside asymmetries driven by concentrated holders. As the price holds around the $68,000 level, the interplay between STH losses and LTH resilience will likely dictate the next phase of volatility.
Market participants should keep an eye on how these dynamics evolve, particularly as new data surfaces about the behavior of large holders and the velocity of inflows. With liquidity and risk sentiment continuing to evolve in response to macro developments, the balance of profits and losses across wallet cohorts could shape both price action and investor psychology in the weeks ahead.
This article relies on on-chain data and analysis from CryptoQuant and related sources referenced in the links above, which provide the backbone for the ongoing conversation about how large holders are shaping Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Market context: The broader crypto environment remains sensitive to liquidity conditions, regulatory signals, and ETF-related flows, with on-chain indicators offering a complementary lens to price charts for assessing risk sentiment and potential support or resistance levels.
Why it matters
For traders, understanding the split between ongoing profits for long-term holders and the losses faced by newer entrants is crucial for assessing risk and timing. The concentration of supply among a relatively small group of large wallets means that a handful of transactions can influence short-term liquidity and price discovery, particularly during periods of market stress or uncertainty. For builders and researchers, the data highlight the importance of monitoring realized prices and SOPR/NUPL trends as proxies for the behavioral shifts within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
From an investor perspective, the persistence of profits for LTH cohorts suggests that the market’s fundamental underpinnings remain robust, even as a subset of participants contends with unrealized losses. The distinction between redistribution and capitulation matters because it affects risk appetite, hedging strategies, and the pace at which new capital migrates between cohorts. Regulators and policymakers will also be watching how on-chain dynamics interact with macro conditions and institutional participation, as more market participants seek clarity on custody, reporting, and risk controls in the evolving crypto landscape.
For the broader market, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s price path is likely to be influenced by the behavior of a few large players and their willingness to adjust exposure in response to shifts in volatility, liquidity, and macro narratives. The balance between the cushion of realized profits for LTH and the pressure on STH coins will continue to shape risk sentiment and the pace of further price discovery in the medium term.
What to watch next
- BTC price action around the 41,626 LTH realized price and the overarching psychological level near $68,000
- Binance whale inflow ratio continuing to trend higher, signaling potential selling pressure from large holders
- SOPR and NUPL readings for LTH cohorts, with attention to whether NUPL turns negative
- Notable whale movements, including any large transfers similar to the so-called Hyperunit whale activity
- Any regulatory or macro developments that influence liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant QuickTake: Bitcoins’ Whale Divide—Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Control (on-chain wallet cohort breakdown and cost bases)
- CryptoQuant: Whale Inflow Ratio data on Binance and related inflow dynamics
- CryptoQuant insights on SOPR for long-term holders and NUPL readings
- Joao Wedson/X posts noting LTH NUPL level (0.36) and related discussions
- Ray Dalio’s world order warning and its discussion in relation to Bitcoin as neutral money
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