Bitcoin Profit Supply Nears Bear-Market Levels, Signaling Downturn

Bitcoin's on-chain profit-and-loss metrics are edging toward the bear-market territory observed in prior cycles, according to CryptoQuant data analyzed by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost. The latest figures show about 11.2 million BTC in profit, with the trough of the last bear market recording roughly 9 million BTC in profit. On the loss side, around 8.2 million BTC are currently in loss, a level that Glassnode data indicate has not been seen since late 2022. Darkfost notes that during the previous bear market, the profit supply peaked around 10.6 million BTC, a level the market now approaches from a different angle.

The juxtaposition of sizable profit supply and rising losses is fueling a nuanced debate among analysts about what comes next for BTC. While some see the on-chain configuration as hinting at undervaluation similar to prior downturns, others caution that the signals reflect mounting market stress and may precede a period of consolidation rather than an imminent bottom.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin profit-supply stands near bear-market-like thresholds, with approximately 11.2 million BTC in profit and about 8.2 million BTC in loss, according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode data.


• In the last bear market, profit supply reached around 10.6 million BTC, suggesting current levels are approaching historical extremes but not identical to prior cycles.


• Analysts diverge on interpretation: some see signs of undervaluation, while others flag rising market stress and potential pre-bottom consolidation.


• BTC has fallen roughly 52% from its all-time high this cycle, a drawdown notably smaller than the 77%–84% declines seen in many earlier bear markets.


• Macro backdrop remains challenging: a stronger U.S. dollar and tighter global liquidity could delay a sustained recovery, with rate cuts not broadly anticipated until late 2026 or 2027.

On-chain signals tightening toward bear-market parity

CryptoQuant data analyzed by Darkfost indicate that Bitcoin's profit supply has climbed toward levels historically associated with bear markets. The current figure sits around 11.2 million BTC in profit, while the loss-side metric sits near 8.2 million BTC. Glassnode data corroborate that the loss-supply level is at a point not seen since late 2022. Darkfost emphasized that the last bear market had as much as 10.6 million BTC in profit, underscoring how the current scene sits near a store of historical extremes but remains distinct from past dynamics.

These metrics do not automatically spell doom, but they do illuminate a market where profit-bearing coins are plentiful even as a substantial portion of supply sits in loss. That configuration can complicate the price path, since a broad cohort of holders remains profitable, while others are under water—potentially influencing sentiment, risk tolerance, and selling pressure as conditions evolve.

Different readings: undervaluation versus market stress

In a contrasting view, Andri Fauzan Adziima, the research lead at the Bitrue exchange, argues that the data point to rising market stress rather than an imminent undervaluation. He notes that true capitulation bottoms historically accompany sharper pain: in 2022, supply in loss exceeded 50% and profit hovered around 45% or lower, with metrics such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) at extreme levels.

“Current data points to early/mid-bear transition (potential structural bottom near $55,000), with more downside or consolidation likely before a full reset.”

Separately, coverage from Cointelegraph highlighted that Fidelity described Bitcoin’s drawdown this cycle as less dramatic than in some past cycles, illustrating the divergent interpretations across the market.

Beyond these readings, Bitcoin’s drawdown from its all-time high this cycle stands at about 52%, a smaller drop than typical bear markets, which have seen declines of approximately 77% to 84% from cycle highs. Such dynamics can be interpreted as evidence of a more resilient near-term setup, though they do not by themselves guarantee a sustained rally or a durable bottom.

Macro backdrop: dollar strength and liquidity constraints

Macro factors are shaping how traders assess on-chain signals. Timothy Peterson, a well-known commentator on Bitcoin markets, observed that BTC tends to struggle when the U.S. dollar is strong and the Chinese yuan is weak, a situation that tightens global liquidity and nudges capital toward cash and government bonds when yields remain elevated. The implication is that dollar strength acts as a headwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin, even as liquidity conditions shift with policy moves.

Peterson notes that a meaningful improvement for BTC would come only when U.S. interest rates fall and dollar yields lose their appeal, a development he expects is unlikely before the second half of 2026 or, more plausibly, in 2027. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has risen about 5% over the past two months, according to data tracked on TradingView, adding to the macro hurdles facing a rapid BTC recovery.

Taken together, the on-chain signals and macro backdrop present a nuanced landscape: a market that, on one hand, shows pockmarks of bear-market-like behavior in profit metrics, but, on the other, is contending with a robust dollar and cautious liquidity that can prolong a period of consolidation rather than deliver a quick reset. Investors should watch for shifts in dollar dynamics, policy expectations, and changes in on-chain metrics such as NUPL and MVRV as new data come in over the coming quarters.

Looking ahead, the question remains what path Bitcoin will take as macro conditions evolve. If on-chain indicators begin to align with a genuine bottom—supported by a sustained weakening of the dollar and a more favorable liquidity environment—the next phase could reflect a gradual re-rating rather than an abrupt rebound. Conversely, if the macro regime remains restrictive and stress signals persist or intensify, the market may continue to drift below recent highs before any meaningful reset materializes.

Readers should keep an eye on evolving rate expectations, liquidity conditions, and the trajectory of on-chain risk metrics. The coming quarters will clarify whether Bitcoin's current configuration marks the end of a broader drawdown or merely a protracted period of accumulation before a more decisive breakout.

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