Ethereum valuation metric reaches 2022 highs as traders eye $2.5K

Ether (ETH) has lifted above $2,150 and is primed for a potential retest of the March highs near $2,385, with broader upside driven by sustained spot activity and growing participation in the futures market. A macro indicator suggests ETH is in a rare undervaluation zone, implying that selling pressure could be fading and an accumulation phase may be forming, though confirmation hinges on reclaiming key levels.

Analysts note that the current rally appears to be supported by spot demand, while derivatives have begun to align with the move rather than leading it. If the momentum holds, traders will be watching whether ETH can extend into the $2,475–$2,635 fair-value gap, which could act as a magnet for buyers in the near term.

Key takeaways

• ETH cleared the $2,150 resistance on a roughly 6.3% push and is eyeing a retest of the $2,385 zone, with potential further upside into the $2,475–$2,635 fair-value gap.


• Spot demand remains robust, with the aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) trending high at 184,500 ETH in April, while futures CVD climbed to about 4.36 million ETH, suggesting derivatives are supportive but not driving the move.


• The funding rate sits at roughly 0.52% (positive), and open interest hovers near 4.75 million ETH, indicating a long-biased but still range-bound market with limited leverage.


• Capriole Macro Index Oscillator reads -2.42 for ETH, a rare undervaluation signal historically linked to capitulation and trend reversals, hinting at limited downside against potential upside if the pattern repeats.


• The ETH taker buy/sell ratio has been rising for four to five months, signaling persistent buying pressure from market participants even as other cycles unfold.

ETH price action and market structure

On the daily timeframe, ETH has surged past a key barrier at $2,150, expanding the path toward higher anchors. The immediate target sits around the March swing high near $2,385, with the market potentially moving toward the $2,475–$2,635 fair-value gap beneath the broader price action. A series of repeat tests around $2,150 over the last two months has eroded resistance at that level, suggesting buyers are willing to step in at progressively higher prices.

In the four-hour view, ETH is showing higher lows and is attempting to push into the $2,250–$2,300 zone, signaling a constructive short- to medium-term setup if momentum remains intact.

On-chain and derivatives signals

Market participation appears to be tilt toward spot, with the spot CVD still elevated at 184,500 ETH for April, indicating sustained demand from buyers in the actual traded market. The futures side has not yet overwhelmed the narrative, but the futures CVD rising to about 4.36 million ETH points to growing derivatives activity supporting the move rather than driving it outright.

The funding rate is positive at around 0.0052, implying a mild long bias, while open interest sits near 4.75 million ETH and remains range-bound. Collectively, the data paint a picture of a controlled accumulation phase where spot demand leads but futures positioning gradually catches up, potentially enabling a stronger breakout if new longs compound their exposure.

Macro context: undervaluation signals and historical patterns

Capriole Investments’ Macro Index Oscillator currently registers -2.42 for ETH, a reading the firm characterizes as a rare undervaluation zone historically associated with capitulation and eventual trend reversals. The metric blends on-chain signals, cycle positioning, and investment behavior; deeply negative readings have preceded important bottoms in the past, including a notable trough around mid-2022 and another signal prior to late-2023 rallies after earlier declines.

Looking back, similar extremes have coincided with macro bottoms followed by recoveries, lending some credibility to a potential period of outperformance if ETH can reclaim higher levels. Data from Capriole also highlights that the negative reading in April 2025 coincided with a local bottom near $1,500, setting the stage for a rally thereafter.

CryptoQuant’s taker buy/sell ratio adds another layer to the narrative, having trended higher for several months. This pattern aligns with a gradual shift from distribution to accumulation, supporting the argument that demand may be building beneath the surface even as price cycles unfold.

Capriole Macro Index Oscillator and CryptoQuant data underpin the current thesis that ETH could be poised for a deeper revaluation if the macro-driven accumulation continues and a breakout is sustained.

As markets digest these signals, investors will be watching whether ETH can convert these nuanced indicators into a durable higher-trading regime. A clean reclaim of the $2,400–$2,500 zone would be a meaningful step toward validating the bullish arc described by the current chart and on-chain readings. Conversely, failure to anchor above these levels would raise questions about how much longer spot-driven demand can sustain the bid without a stronger futures-driven expansion.

From a broader perspective, the current setup suggests a delicate balance between on-chain demand and derivatives exposure. While the data point to a controlled accumulation, the magnitude of the move could hinge on a decisive shift in futures positioning and macro liquidity conditions in the weeks ahead.

Traders should stay attentive to any break above $2,500, which would open the door to the next resistance cluster. If that occurs, the market could retest higher targets more quickly; if not, ETH may consolidate and reassess the pace of the rally against evolving funding dynamics and macro risks.

What remains uncertain is how the evolving macro backdrop and evolving on-chain activity will interact with the technical setup. A sustained move beyond the $2,500 level, supported by expanding futures positioning and continued spot demand, would strengthen the case for a continued ascent toward higher quarterback levels in the mid-term. Keep an eye on the balance between spot and futures delta, the macro oscillator, and the taker ratio as the next clues of where ETH is headed.

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