Bitcoin “long-term” holders appear to be stepping back from selling, with on-chain data suggesting that the most patient cohort is now moving far less BTC than it did during earlier rally-driven waves. At the same time, multiple market analysts are pointing to a recurring halving-cycle timing model and to possible downside liquidity levels that could shape where the next bottom forms.
According to CryptoQuant data cited by analyst Darkfost, BTC spending by holders who acquired their coins more than five years ago has dropped to a 90-day average of 962 BTC—the lowest level since November 2024. Darkfost also described earlier peaks in this measure, including a high of 3,860 BTC in May 2024.
Key takeaways
- CryptoQuant data shows long-term holder “spending” fell to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024.
- Darkfost identified three major selling/spending waves since the prior two years’ rallies, with the largest peak in May 2024.
- Axel Adler Jr. argues the weakness is concentrated more in newer holders: ST h realized cap reportedly shrank while LTH drawdown stayed limited.
- Two analysts are also using cycle timing and chart structure to frame a potential bottoming window in early September, depending on how BTC trades into July.
Long-term “OG” holders ease net pressure
Darkfost’s analysis tracks spent transaction outputs (STXO), a metric commonly used to observe how much BTC has moved on-chain. The dataset focuses on investors who have held Bitcoin for more than five years, often referred to as long-term or “OG” holders.
In the period following strong rallies, Darkfost described three major spending waves: a 90-day moving average that peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, then rose again to 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and later to 2,360 BTC in September 2025. While averages peaked in the thousands, individual sessions were far more extreme. Darkfost cited days in which output exceeded 10,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC, and even 142,000 BTC.
What stands out in the current read is the sharp cooling in that trend. Darkfost said the 90-day average has fallen to 962 BTC, representing the lowest level in 19 months. He also noted that the most expensive coins in this cohort were acquired around $63,200—close to where the market was trading at the time the analysis was made. The implication for traders is straightforward: when long-term holders’ cost basis aligns with current prices, the willingness to sell appears to reduce, at least as measured by STXO movement.
LTH resilience vs STH strain
Another layer of interpretation comes from Bitcoin Researcher Axel Adler Jr., who highlighted a divergence between newer and older investors using adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) alongside realized capital measures for short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH).
Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s aNUPL has moved down to -0.14 from near zero a month earlier, reflecting that the average position may be back in unrealized loss territory as BTC traded near $62,500. He also drew attention to the relative behavior of different holding cohorts, arguing that newer holders are absorbing the damage rather than long-term participants broadening selling pressure.
“STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down. Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.”
In Adler Jr.’s framing, the key point is not merely that drawdowns exist, but that they appear unevenly distributed. He added that spent value for short-term holders has spent nearly half of the past three months below zero—an indication of persistent pressure on the participants most likely to have purchased closer to the current market range, rather than a sweeping capitulation across long-term holders.
For readers tracking whether the market is approaching a durable base, this distinction matters. If LTH activity continues to quiet while STH realized positions deteriorate, it can imply that distribution is being concentrated among less patient buyers—potentially setting up conditions for stabilization once those participants reduce forced or emotional selling.
Halving-cycle timing points to an early September window
Beyond on-chain cohort behavior, some analysts are tying the current drawdown to a pattern observed around prior halving cycles. Crypto analyst LP highlighted a recurring timeline: in the prior bear market, a “final capitulation” phase arrived about 826 days after the halving, followed by a period of consolidation lasting roughly 70 to 110 days.
For the current cycle, LP said the 826-day marker lands on July 6. Using the same timing logic, the trader suggested a potential bottoming window in early September. LP also indicated that the scenario becomes more relevant if Bitcoin continues to push higher into early July—essentially linking the probability of a timeline-based bottom to how the market trades in the remaining weeks.
While cycle models are not guarantees, this approach offers one practical takeaway: traders often watch whether price action begins to show stabilization behavior after periods of increased capitulation and whether consolidation extends into the modeled window.
Chart-level downside liquidity remains in focus
Another analyst, Titan (referencing work shared via X), emphasized downside levels on the quarterly chart. Titan pointed to an untapped low near $58,900 and described an open fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900.
According to the trader’s explanation, leaving the quarterly low untouched through September may draw renewed attention to that liquidity zone. From there, Titan argued that a market bottom could form between Q3 and Q4, effectively treating the $58,900 area—and the broader gap beneath—as a key “magnet” for order flow if price weakens further.
Importantly for investors and active traders, this complements the on-chain narrative rather than contradicting it. If long-term holder spending continues to cool, but short-term selling pressure persists, price can still drift lower enough to revisit liquidity pockets—especially if broader market conditions remain fragile.
Going forward, the market’s next signal may come from whether long-term holder spending stays subdued while aNUPL and realized capital metrics stabilize for newer cohorts. Traders should also watch whether BTC’s path into early July matches the assumptions embedded in the halving-cycle timing models—since that appears to be a key condition for the suggested early-September bottom window.
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