Galaxy Digital cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a 50-50 outcome, arguing that the US Senate is facing a shrinking window to advance the digital-asset bill before lawmakers depart for its August recess. The firm’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said the change reflects timing pressures rather than a sudden shift in the bill’s underlying policy merits.
Thorn pointed to structural hurdles in the Senate—most notably the absence of a single, unified text spanning the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, uncertainty around when the bill might reach the floor, and an increasingly tight legislative calendar. In parallel, he said political maneuvering over other high-profile legislation has intensified competition for limited Senate scheduling time.
Key takeaways
- Galaxy Digital reduced its 2026 odds for the CLARITY Act passing to 50%, citing Senate floor-time uncertainty and a narrowing timetable.
- The firm previously estimated 60% after lowering its forecast on June 9 from 75% set just weeks earlier on May 22.
- Thorn said the downgrade is primarily about timing, not whether the CLARITY Act’s substance has gained or lost support.
- US Senate scheduling constraints are being heightened by competing legislative priorities, including the SAVE Act debate.
- Although the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, lawmakers still must find a feasible path through the full Senate before the August recess.
Galaxy’s odds cut tracks a tighter Senate path
In a post shared via Alex Thorn’s social account, Galaxy said it is lowering its projected odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to “50-50.” Thorn framed the adjustment as a response to the Senate’s calendar realities—specifically, the likelihood that even a bill with bipartisan backing may fail to secure enough procedural and scheduling bandwidth to reach a final vote.
The update comes after Galaxy changed its estimate multiple times in recent weeks. On June 9, Galaxy lowered its forecast to 60% from a prior 75% estimate. Earlier, on May 22, the firm raised its odds to 75%, signaling that it believed the bill’s momentum could be sustained.
Thorn emphasized that the downgrade should not be interpreted as a commentary on the bill’s policy direction. Instead, he said the core problem is “timing”—including a lack of clarity on whether a Senate Banking-Agriculture unified version exists that can move through the chamber, and whether leadership can allocate the bill a meaningful slot on the floor.
August recess looms as competing fights intensify
Galaxy’s argument is anchored in the Senate’s near-term schedule. According to the US Senate’s legislative timetable, the chamber entered a work period Monday through July 10. The Senate is also expected to begin its traditional August recess on Aug. 8 for roughly five weeks, before returning Sept. 14.
Thorn suggested the path to passage grows harder as the calendar compresses. He warned that lawmakers are dealing with an “already crowded queue” for floor time and said debate over the SAVE Act has added another “contentious” and resource-heavy fight into the same scheduling bottleneck.
Thorn further noted that the broader legislative environment includes other unfinished and politically sensitive items, which can make it harder for any single bill—especially one requiring coordination across committees—to gain priority. He cited Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027 as additional “must-pass” targets that often draw political attention.
In this context, the CLARITY Act’s timeline is also under scrutiny. The bill is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17, and it is intended to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.
Where the CLARITY Act stands—and why pushback persists
While the CLARITY Act has advanced in Congress, it has not escaped controversy. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but according to coverage at the time, most Democrats on the committee and parts of the banking industry pushed back. Critics argued that the bill could permit crypto firms to offer yield products connected to stablecoins without meeting the same requirements imposed on traditional financial institutions.
Regulatory and public-safety objections have also surfaced from outside the banking sector. Earlier reporting noted that groups including law enforcement organizations and coalitions of Catholic organizations contacted White House officials with concerns that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps related to illicit activity.
At the same time, industry advocates continue to press for movement. At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto firms and organizations urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by the crypto lobbying group Stand With Crypto, underscoring that supporters are working to keep momentum alive even as schedule pressure increases.
What to watch as timing becomes the deciding factor
With Galaxy now treating 2026 passage as a coin flip, the practical question for market participants is whether the Senate leadership can align committee processes and secure floor time before the August recess. The next developments to monitor are procedural: whether a workable, unified Senate text emerges; what the Senate leadership’s floor schedule ultimately looks like; and how the SAVE Act and other high-priority “must-pass” items affect what can realistically be brought to a vote.
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