Canadian fintech Wealthsimple is preparing to launch a new prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, built on Kalshi contracts. The rollout—scheduled for this summer—aims to give Canadian retail investors regulated access to thousands of event-based contracts across themes such as financial markets, economic indicators and climate.
The move follows a regulatory green light earlier this year from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which authorized Kalshi to offer certain prediction market contracts in Canada. Investors will receive the contracts through Wealthsimple’s standalone interface, but the underlying structure remains tied to Kalshi’s exchange listings and Canadian derivative rules.
Key takeaways
- Wealthsimple Predict is scheduled for summer and will provide Canadian users access to roughly 4,000 Kalshi event contracts.
- CIRO authorization in March means the contracts are treated as regulated derivatives, with settlement periods of at least 30 days.
- Kalshi’s Canada rollout arrives as the company moves further into crypto derivatives, including perpetual futures.
- Established exchange players are pushing back: CME Group has sued the CFTC over its approval framework for Kalshi-style perpetual futures.
- Prediction markets remain controversial globally, with regulators in Europe and Asia taking actions ranging from access blocks to bans and investigations.
Wealthsimple brings Kalshi event contracts to Canada
Wealthsimple’s planned app is designed to be a retail-facing doorway into prediction markets. According to the announcement, Wealthsimple Predict will offer Canadian users access to about 4,000 Kalshi-listed event contracts. The available markets span areas such as:
- Financial markets
- Economic indicators
- Climate
Regulation is central to the pitch. In March, CIRO authorized the firm to offer prediction market contracts linked to those categories. The regulator also positioned the business as the second investment dealer authorized by CIRO to offer prediction market trading in Canada.
Importantly for compliance-minded investors, CIRO’s framework treats these instruments as derivatives. The contracts must also include settlement periods of at least 30 days, a requirement intended to shape how event positions are held and resolved.
Kalshi expands again: perpetual futures go live
Wealthsimple’s Canada launch comes as Kalshi continues broadening beyond its reputation as a prediction-market venue. On Thursday, the company said its perpetual futures products were live for trading, following a May 31 announcement that marked Kalshi’s entry into the crypto perpetual futures market.
That expansion matters because it changes the company’s risk profile and audience: moving from event-based contracts to perpetual derivatives brings Kalshi into a more traditional—yet heavily contested—regulatory and exchange-competition arena. In practice, it means investors who start with “events” may increasingly encounter derivatives structures that behave more like crypto trading products than pure market forecasting tools.
CME challenges the CFTC’s crypto perpetual futures approvals
Kalshi’s derivatives expansion has already triggered pushback from incumbents. CME Group reportedly sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the regulator’s approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts offered by Kalshi and similar products by Coinbase. CME’s argument is that the CFTC misclassified the products under federal law.
The filing followed comments from CME CEO Terrence Duffy stating the exchange planned to challenge the approvals in court. The dispute underscores a broader industry tension: whether certain crypto derivatives should be treated under existing futures and swaps frameworks—or whether regulators have overstepped their authority when characterizing the instruments.
These developments build on the CFTC’s earlier actions. In May, the agency approved Bitcoin perpetual futures for Kalshi and issued a no-action position allowing Coinbase to offer similar products. Since then, other crypto trading venues have also leaned into regulated perpetual access, including Coinbase expanding institutional availability to global crypto derivatives markets and Kraken launching perpetual futures for U.S. traders through its Bitnomial exchange.
Prediction markets face mounting regulatory resistance
Canada’s approval contrasts sharply with the regulatory headwinds prediction markets continue to face elsewhere. In Spain, regulators ordered internet providers to block access to Kalshi and Polymarket while investigating whether the platforms were breaching national gambling rules.
Other jurisdictions have taken harsher steps. In Indonesia, Polymarket was banned after users reportedly traded contracts tied to whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early. Meanwhile, Japan saw warnings to users regarding Polymarket-linked transfers, and South Korea has reportedly involved police investigations into alleged gambling violations tied to local users.
In the United States, the conflict is less about a single ban and more about legal classification. At least 11 states have challenged prediction markets in recent months, with the disagreement centered on whether event contracts should fall under state gambling laws or under federally regulated CFTC derivatives oversight. The stakes are practical: the same contract could be framed legally as a wager by one regulator and as a derivative by another.
Speaking at Bitso’s Stablecoin Conference in Mexico City on June 16, Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said the CFTC-versus-state gambling regulator conflict is likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. The comment reflects how quickly prediction-market legality has shifted from a niche policy debate into an institutional legal fight.
What to watch next
With Wealthsimple Predict set to bring CIRO-authorized event contracts to Canadian retail investors, the immediate question is how smoothly the offering scales within derivative guardrails—especially the 30-day settlement requirement. At the same time, Kalshi’s move into perpetual futures and CME’s lawsuit against the CFTC signal that the regulatory battle is widening beyond prediction markets, so readers should watch for court developments and any further changes to how derivatives are classified and approved.
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