Crypto markets are moving into what ARK Invest analyst Lorenzo Valente describes as the industry’s “biggest consolidation phase yet,” driven by investor selectivity and a shift in where application revenues flow. In an X post on Wednesday, Valente argued that only a small set of protocols and platforms with clear product-market fit are capturing a growing share of demand—while weaker projects face closures or forced restructuring.
Valente pointed to concentration in crypto application revenue as a key signal. He cited Hyperliquid and Pump.fun as together accounting for about 67% of total crypto application revenue, and said that adding Ethena brings the top three’s combined share to nearly 80%, describing this as record-high concentration.
Key takeaways
- Revenue concentration is rising: Valente estimates Hyperliquid and Pump.fun make up ~67% of crypto application revenue, with the top three nearing ~80% when Ethena is included.
- Capital is getting more selective: Valente says it’s increasingly harder for exchanges and projects without strong product-market fit to attract funding.
- Industry shakeout is likely to intensify: He expects more mergers and acquisitions, shutdowns, and restructuring, including Chapter 11 filings.
- Exchange closures are already reinforcing the theme: Recent operational wind-down plans from multiple venues align with consolidation pressures.
Why investors are picking winners
Valente’s core argument is that investor behavior is changing alongside market maturity. As capital becomes more discerning, projects that fail to demonstrate sustained usage or a defensible niche are finding it increasingly difficult to secure financing or maintain growth. In his view, this accelerates attrition: weaker products either shut down or get absorbed, leaving a smaller set of dominant protocols behind.
While consolidation is not a new pattern in crypto, Valente framed the current period as unusually pronounced—especially when measured by application revenue share. By emphasizing top platforms’ increasing dominance, he suggested that the sector is not merely pruning inefficient competitors, but also concentrating economic returns into fewer hands.
Revenue concentration and the “record-high” claim
To make the case, Valente highlighted specific platforms and their estimated contribution to crypto application revenue. According to his post, Hyperliquid and Pump.fun account for roughly 67% of total crypto application revenue. When Ethena is added, the top three approach nearly 80% combined.
The practical implication for users and builders is straightforward: if revenue is increasingly concentrated, liquidity, incentives, partnerships, and developer attention may also cluster around the same dominant venues and protocols. That can create a reinforcing cycle—success brings more of the ecosystem’s resources—making it harder for new entrants to gain traction.
Valente also described the consolidation he expects ahead as “extremely bullish” for crypto, implying that a cleaner market structure could improve resilience and investor confidence, even if the transition is disruptive for teams that don’t survive the competitive narrowing.
Source: Lorenzo Valente
Exchange wind-downs add pressure from the infrastructure layer
Valente’s consolidation thesis comes as several exchanges have recently announced plans to wind down operations or end services, underscoring the broader challenge of sustaining activity in an increasingly competitive environment.
Last week, BitMEX said it would shut down its exchange in September following a strategic review by owner HDR Global Trading. The exchange cited insufficient trading interest and noted that it had accelerated delisting of trading pairs and derivative contracts ahead of the closure. Earlier coverage details the shutdown decision and the delisting rationale: BitMEX shut down its exchange.
Days later, BitMart announced it would end trading services on Aug. 26 and then wind down completely in January 2027. The exchange attributed the decision to an evaluation of operating conditions, the market environment, and its future strategic direction. This plan is described in earlier reporting: BitMart wind-down timeline.
Together, these announcements illustrate consolidation occurring not only through market share at the application level, but also at the venue level—where competitive pressures can force even established names to reduce offerings or exit entirely.
Mergers and acquisitions show consolidation can be strategic
Alongside closures, acquisitions are also contributing to industry consolidation. Valente’s expectations for more mergers and acquisitions are consistent with how some players are expanding rather than withdrawing.
Earlier this month, Bybit launched a locally operated exchange in Indonesia after acquiring a majority stake in digital asset firm NOBI. The move expands Bybit’s footprint in one of Asia’s largest crypto markets, illustrating a different pathway for consolidation: larger operators absorbing or partnering with local entities to gain access and scale.
Related coverage: Bybit launches in Indonesia after NOBI acquisition
What to watch next
As consolidation pressures build, the next signal to monitor is whether revenue concentration keeps widening toward a small set of dominant applications while more exchanges restructure or exit. Valente expects that pattern to accelerate—so investors, traders, and builders should pay close attention to which platforms keep attracting usage as the industry prunes weaker competitors.
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