BIS Study Suggests Stablecoins Could Circumvent Capital Controls

Dollar-backed stablecoins are beginning to behave like a fast-growing channel for “digital dollarization,” according to new research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). In a study spanning more than 130 economies, BIS researchers argue that stablecoin inflows react differently than traditional foreign-currency deposits—especially when governments impose capital controls or tighten foreign-exchange (FX) restrictions.

The implication for policymakers is straightforward but uncomfortable: rules built for banking systems may be less effective in a tokenized world, where part of stablecoin activity appears to move “outside the regulatory perimeter.” While BIS does not conclude that monetary policy transmission is broadly impaired, it warns that stablecoins could still weaken monetary sovereignty by encouraging households and businesses to hold and transact value in dollars outside conventional banking.

Key takeaways

• BIS finds dollar-pegged stablecoin inflows rise during macroeconomic stress, similar to foreign-currency deposits.


• Unlike bank deposits, stablecoin flows show little sensitivity to capital controls and FX restrictions, suggesting activity can sit beyond regulatory reach.


• The study sees limited evidence that deposit dollarization disrupts monetary policy transmission, though higher foreign-currency deposits correlate with somewhat greater inflation risk.


• BIS argues regulators may need new financial-stability tools tailored to tokenized systems rather than relying on frameworks designed for banks and deposits.

“Digital dollarization” that resists capital controls

The BIS paper examines how dollar-denominated value enters and circulates in economies facing pressure—tracking both foreign-currency bank deposits and inflows into dollar-pegged stablecoins across more than 130 countries. The researchers report that both categories tend to increase when macroeconomic conditions worsen.

That overlap matters because it suggests stablecoins are not merely a speculative phenomenon; they can reflect real-world incentives that emerge during periods of uncertainty, such as depreciation expectations, inflation concerns, and restricted access to reliable FX channels.

However, the key difference is in how the two behave under policy barriers. The BIS authors found stablecoin inflows were “largely unaffected by capital controls” and other FX restrictions. In their explanation, they argue this may be because stablecoins “are partly circulating outside the regulatory perimeter”—meaning restrictions designed to shape bank-based capital flows may not fully apply to token-based systems.

Monetary sovereignty concerns remain

BIS stops short of saying stablecoins automatically destabilize monetary systems everywhere, but it highlights a plausible pathway for damage: households and businesses could increasingly shift into dollars without relying on the banking infrastructure that typically channels and constrains foreign-currency holdings.

The risk is especially pronounced in emerging markets, where currency weakness and limited financial service depth can make dollar assets more attractive. In such settings, stablecoins can lower practical friction for users who want dollar-denominated value for saving, payments, or cross-border activity—potentially reducing demand for local-currency balances and moving more financial activity outside standard intermediation.

The BIS study also notes that even if monetary policy transmission is not obviously weakened in aggregate, the broader environment could still become more fragile. The researchers point out that countries with higher foreign-currency deposits face greater inflation risk, suggesting that dollarization—whether through banks or tokens—may still have macroeconomic consequences worth monitoring.

Why investors and builders should care

For market participants, the findings go beyond a theoretical policy debate. If stablecoin adoption is indeed less constrained by capital controls, then stablecoin liquidity may become a more persistent feature of macro stress—potentially affecting funding conditions, FX dynamics, and how quickly cross-border value can move when local conditions deteriorate.

For developers and payment operators, the study reinforces that compliance and risk management cannot be limited to traditional banking assumptions. When stablecoins circulate through rails that fall outside existing supervisory boundaries, regulatory effectiveness depends not only on formal licensing, but also on where tokens are held, transferred, and used in practice.

BIS’s message to policymakers—“regulations designed for traditional banking and foreign-currency deposits may be less effective in a tokenized financial system”—is a signal that future oversight may evolve toward activity-based frameworks or tools targeted at token ecosystems rather than account-based rules alone.

Stablecoin usage keeps expanding in key regions

The BIS research lands at a time when stablecoin usage is rising in multiple emerging markets, supported by both payments utility and the appeal of dollar-denominated value during periods of instability.

In a separate analysis of Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that households and small businesses have been using US dollar-pegged stablecoins for cross-border payments, remittances, and access to dollar-denominated assets as inflation, currency depreciation, and FX access constraints drive demand. The IMF also noted that stablecoins can reduce the cost and time of moving money across borders while expanding access to financial services for users outside the traditional banking system. At the same time, it warned that broader adoption could weaken monetary sovereignty by shifting demand away from local currencies and moving more activity outside conventional banking channels.

Stablecoin activity is also accelerating in parts of Latin America. Bitso Business, described as the enterprise payments arm of exchange Bitso, reported an 81% year-on-year increase in stablecoin payment volume during the first half of 2026. The company also said Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDt accounted for 40% of all crypto purchases in the region in 2025, surpassing Bitcoin for the first time.

Meanwhile, broader market data points to continued growth in overall stablecoin supply. Stablecoin market capitalization has risen to about $309.7 billion, up from roughly $260 billion a year earlier, according to the figures referenced alongside the report. For tracking supply and distribution, the article cites DefiLlama’s stablecoin dashboard: DefiLlama.

What to watch next

The BIS study suggests that capital controls may not fully blunt dollar-pegged stablecoin flows during stress, but it also leaves room for further research on how adoption affects different policy regimes over time. Investors and compliance teams should watch for regulatory approaches that better address token circulation beyond banking channels—especially in emerging markets where local currency vulnerability and limited FX access make stablecoin adoption most likely to accelerate.

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