Bitcoin pushed back above $61,000 after a weaker-than-expected US labor report revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may stay flexible on rates. The selloff in US tech—particularly Nasdaq-linked exposure—also helped traders frame Thursday’s move as a potential rotation away from crowded risk assets and toward traditionally scarce stores of value such as Bitcoin and gold.
According to Yahoo Finance, US non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, missing the 113,000 expected figure. The Labor Department also revised April and May totals downward by a combined 74,000 jobs, adding to the pressure on rate-hike assumptions ahead of September.
Key takeaways
- Disappointing June jobs data reduced near-term rate-hike odds, supporting Bitcoin’s rebound after a dip toward $57,750.
- CME FedWatch moved to 54% odds of rate hikes by September, down from 64% the prior day, highlighting a shift in expectations.
- Gold strengthened alongside Bitcoin, reinforcing the “scarce assets” narrative as investors priced a potentially less tight policy path.
- Onchain indicators cited by CryptoQuant author gaah_im suggest seller exhaustion and a profit-to-loss ratio at levels not seen since 2022.
Jobs data shifts rate expectations and markets follow
The immediate catalyst for crypto’s bounce was the labor market surprise. With non-farm payroll growth coming in well below consensus—and previous months revised lower—traders recalibrated how much economic strength the Fed could rely on to justify additional tightening.
That recalibration showed up in the probability market. CME data via its FedWatch Tool indicated the odds of a rate hike by September fell to 54% from 64% the day before. In practice, that means traders were less convinced the Fed would need to move rates higher despite inflation-related concerns.
At the same time, risk assets that depend on steady growth and low discount rates came under pressure. The Nasdaq 100 erased gains that had built over the prior three sessions, offering a clear macro-throughline: weaker labor prints can compress the appetite for high-multiple equities, while increasing interest in assets perceived to benefit from looser or more supportive liquidity conditions.
Gold steadies as oil slips, reinforcing “liquidity” expectations
Gold prices responded positively on Thursday, which traders often read as a signal that investors are increasingly preparing for a less restrictive policy stance. The article’s framing also connects this to the behavior of crude oil. WTI crude stabilized below $70, while the broader complex had been affected by geopolitical developments.
Oil fell after the Qatar Foreign Ministry said there was “positive progress” in the latest round of discussions between US and Iranian representatives. The move matters less for its headline and more for what it implies for inflation pressure: if energy costs ease, markets may feel less compelled to price aggressive tightening.
In the context of the Fed, attention also turned back to its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve balance sheet was described as stagnating at $6.73 trillion, although the Fed’s mandate allows for $40 billion monthly purchases in short-term Treasuries and bonds. The combination of softer labor data and reduced inflation pressure is commonly interpreted as the backdrop for accelerated liquidity injection—a dynamic that can lower yields and improve conditions for investment flows into assets with limited supply.
AI weakness and “rotation” talk put Bitcoin back in focus
Beyond macro, there was also sector-specific pressure. Traders pointed to weakness in the AI complex—particularly chip-related names—as evidence that capital may be looking for alternatives. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials reportedly fell intraday by 9% or more on Thursday.
That disparity between AI-heavy equity exposure and Bitcoin’s price action fed the rotation narrative. While Bitcoin had recently been rejected around $82,500, the rebound followed a broader risk re-pricing after the jobs report. The article notes Bitcoin had been distancing itself from Wednesday’s $57,750 low, suggesting that the market’s downside momentum was losing steam.
If AI-linked selling persists, the logic is straightforward: portfolio managers and traders who reduce high-beta exposures may seek other avenues for returns and hedging—especially those assets that benefit when liquidity expectations improve. In that scenario, the same investors watching Nasdaq futures also become natural readers of Bitcoin’s onchain and macro sensitivity.
Onchain signals: seller exhaustion and a 2022-style profit/loss reset
CryptoQuant author and onchain analyst gaah_im highlighted a set of metrics intended to measure where the market stands in its cycle. In a post referenced in the article, the analyst said Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has reached its lowest level since 2022. The “net percentage of supply in profit” also reportedly turned negative—an outcome gaah_im said historically marks cycle bottoms with “extreme precision.”
For investors, this is the part of the story that matters most if you’re looking beyond the next headline. Onchain indicators can’t guarantee timing, but they can help frame whether the selling pressure that often drives drawdowns has already run its course. A negative shift in profit distribution implies more holders are effectively under water, reducing the likelihood that the market is still populated by large, confident profit-takers poised to dump into strength.
The article also links part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness to disappointment around Strategy (commonly discussed in the market context of its Bitcoin-related capital strategy). Even though the piece describes holders as facing dilution tied to accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks, the takeaway for market observers is that supply dynamics and capital flows around major corporate players can influence short-term volatility.
Finally, the combination of weaker labor data, easier expectations for policy over the coming months, and onchain readings suggesting seller exhaustion is why a near-term rebound toward $70,000 is being discussed. The upside case here is not just “macro improves,” but that the market may already be close enough to a capitulation-like condition that further stabilization in rates and liquidity could quickly translate into renewed demand.
What to watch next is whether labor-market weakness continues to dominate rate expectations—or whether investors start to re-price the Fed back toward a more hawkish stance. Onchain metrics may point to exhaustion, but the market will likely decide the pace of any recovery based on incoming macro data, the path of oil and inflation expectations, and whether AI-linked weakness broadens into sustained rotation rather than a one-day drawdown.
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