Bitcoin is entering the last week of August near its strongest levels since early May, as a bear-market recovery appears to be testing major technical levels and drawing fresh attention from both traders and ETF investors. After a rally that pushed the market to $79,550, BTC/USD finished the week around $77,727 on Bitstamp, according to TradingView data—an outcome traders are now watching for follow-through rather than a quick rebound.
The shift matters because it coincides with improving on-chain profitability by several wallet cohorts, a renewed return of capital to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, and a busy US macro calendar that could influence risk appetite. Still, analysts caution that resistance overhead—especially around the $80,000 area—may determine whether this strength becomes a durable trend or another temporary relief move.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week exponential moving average for the first time since early November 2025, reclaiming a long-watched bear-market level.
- On-chain data highlighted by CryptoQuant shows “new money” breaking into net profitability, but it also places a key breakeven region around $73,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF netflows totaled $1.9 billion over the prior week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, per Farside Investors.
- Macro focus turns to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and the release of US PCE inflation data ahead of Wednesday’s print.
Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week EMA—now comes the “hold” test
Last week’s move was notable not just for its size, but for what it reclaimed. BTC reached $79,550 during the rally, its highest level since early May. The week ended with BTC/USD at $77,727 on Bitstamp, which signaled a reclaim of the 50-week exponential moving average—currently near $77,752—based on TradingView charts.
This 50-week EMA has historically been treated as a pivotal line during bear markets, and the last time Bitcoin achieved a weekly close above it was in early November 2025. In earlier cycles, traders have noted that price often retests the 50-week EMA before the market either confirms a transition to a stronger regime or slips back into deeper declines.
That backdrop is why some analysts are framing last week’s breakout as conditional. Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital previously warned that the 50-week EMA alone was not the full challenge; he pointed to the broader $80,000 area as the next hurdle for bulls. In his ongoing X commentary, he argued that bear-market relief rallies in the past have tended to retrace sharply in the week following a strong breakout—making the coming sessions critical to whether the market can sustain the new highs.
Rekt Capital also shared charts suggesting the formation of “macro lower highs,” implying recent strength could still fit within a larger downtrend structure until Bitcoin convincingly changes that pattern.
Profitability shifts on-chain, but downside “margin” may be thin
Technical reclaim is one side of the story; on-chain profitability is the other. The rally improved conditions for multiple wallet cohorts. A key reference point highlighted by CoinGlass data is that August is shaping up as Bitcoin’s best performing month since 2017, with the asset up roughly 22% month-to-date as of the time of writing.
CryptoQuant’s analysis tied this rebound to changes in realized cost bases by age cohort. CryptoQuant pointed to the “aggregate cost basis” for short-term holders—defined as wallets holding UTXOs for less than 155 days—at about $68,700. On that basis, CryptoQuant estimated STHs are now net profitable by just over 11%.
The same read-through showed long-term holder profitability moving from near breakeven to about +18.5%, while “new money” profitability rose from approximately -1.4% to +12.7%. More importantly for risk assessment, CryptoQuant calculated that “new money” now has a breakeven level around $73,000—above both the STH and LTH cost bases.
That creates a narrower cushion. CryptoQuant said the “68K–73K region” is now the key area to watch: holding above it would suggest the profitability reset is becoming structurally more durable, while losing it could quickly push a meaningful portion of the recent buyer base back into loss territory.
For traders, the takeaway is practical: if the market’s technical strength is translating into sustained demand, the on-chain distribution should stabilize above the key breakeven band. If it doesn’t, the risk is that the next pullback becomes sharper because fewer holders are positioned to absorb selling without realizing losses.
Jackson Hole, PCE inflation, and Treasury market moves set the tone
Beyond charts and chain data, Bitcoin’s near-term direction is likely to remain sensitive to US policy signals. All eyes this week are on the Federal Reserve and chair Kevin Warsh as the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium gets underway. The event will feature central bankers from more than 70 countries and includes Warsh’s first keynote speech as Fed chair, alongside his first public appearance since the July Federal Open Market Committee press conference.
Markets have been weighing how Warsh approaches interest-rate guidance—particularly after data has supported some softening in the expected policy path. However, traders are also keeping one eye on inflation risk stemming from geopolitical drivers, including oil-price volatility tied to the US-Iran conflict.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 63.1% odds that rates remain at 3.50%–3.75% after the September FOMC meeting, reflecting broad expectations that the near-term path may not involve immediate tightening.
There’s also a more complex angle: Warsh’s role appears tied to Treasury market considerations as policymakers seek to reduce the Fed’s involvement in day-to-day market functioning. In recent remarks reported by CNBC, strategist Thierry Wizman warned that signaling a persistently “dovish” stance could complicate Treasury goals by pushing inflation expectations higher, potentially undermining stability in nominal long-term yields.
Alongside Jackson Hole, the macro schedule includes the release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index on Wednesday. The PCE is widely treated as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and in June it showed a first month-on-month decline since 2020, adding weight to the focus on the new print. Consensus expectations for Wednesday’s report call for a 0.1% monthly increase, with the year-on-year rate cooling to 3.6% from 3.7% in June.
Importantly, investors are not entering this data week from a calm baseline. The previous week’s market narrative was shaped by a US Treasury decision to at least double the size of its debt buyback operations to $4 billion per operation. That move contributed to a short squeeze in crypto, with liquidations reported at $3.1 billion over two days as Bitcoin moved higher.
Some market commentary suggested the Treasury action may have echoed broader “yield curve control” expectations—an idea long discussed by crypto commentators in the context of liquidity regimes and the relationship between government financing costs and broader asset markets.
ETF flows rebound sharply — but investors are watching for follow-through
One of the clearest signals of renewed demand has come from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to Farside Investors data compiled via its BTC ETF tracker, the ETF cohort pulled in $1.9 billion over the prior five trading days—the strongest weekly total since October 2025, when Bitcoin reached its latest all-time highs around $126,200.
Activity was particularly strong during the week’s later sessions as BTC/USD extended gains beyond $70,000. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded net inflows of more than $500 million on Thursday, according to the report citing Bloomberg’s coverage.
OKX SG CEO Gracie Lin, speaking to Bloomberg, said the key pattern was that there were net inflows on every trading day the previous week, suggesting renewed investor interest. She also cautioned that after a strong rally, some profit-taking would not be surprising.
The contrast versus recent history is stark. Two months earlier, June saw highly unusual outflows, with more than $4.5 billion leaving spot Bitcoin ETFs—described as unprecedented in the coverage. By the end of last week, August inflows stood at $2.38 billion, a new year-to-date record.
For market participants, ETF flows are often used as a signal of whether “spot” demand is expanding or merely cycling with volatility. The immediate question now is whether this inflow momentum can persist as Bitcoin tests resistance and as macro catalysts (Jackson Hole and PCE data) land.
Looking ahead, the next few trading sessions should clarify whether Bitcoin’s weekly reclaim of the 50-week EMA translates into sustained demand: traders will likely weigh price acceptance above the $80,000 resistance zone, while on-chain investors should watch whether the $68,000–$73,000 breakeven band holds. With Jackson Hole and the July PCE report approaching, volatility risk may remain elevated, but the ETF flow trend could determine whether this strength is gaining real traction.
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