Bitcoin opened the week by printing fresh August highs as traders digested incoming U.S. inflation figures and renewed attention on global rate expectations. With the latest month-to-date strength pushing price toward the mid-$60,000s, market participants are now focusing on whether key technical levels can hold—especially with volatility risk rising ahead of CPI and PPI releases.
At the same time, the macro backdrop remains complicated: markets are still recalibrating the path for Federal Reserve policy into 2026, while the Japanese yen has moved back toward the widely watched 160-per-dollar area after recent U.S.-linked intervention. The mix of macro drivers and onchain positioning is helping shape a market debate that’s increasingly split between large holders and smaller retail addresses.
Key takeaways
- U.S. CPI and PPI data land this week, arriving after mixed-but-cooler inflation and labor signals that have shifted rate-hike odds.
- The Japanese yen is back near the 160 level following earlier intervention dynamics that traders link to broader risk-asset liquidity.
- BTC bulls are centered on the $65,800 region, framed by multiple traders and order-book-derived liquidation focus.
- CryptoQuant data points to a multi-month high in accumulation among large Bitcoin wallets (addresses holding >10,000 BTC).
- Despite pockets of strength, onchain “cycle” indicators still suggest the bear market phase may not be over—particularly in the second half of 2026.
Inflation data and the Fed’s tightening/pausing calculus
This week’s market attention is firmly on the release schedule for the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. The July CPI is due on Wednesday and the July PPI on Thursday, milestones that often move expectations around the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate path.
Recent inflation signals have been uneven, and the new prints arrive amid additional uncertainty tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. According to Reuters, oil prices have remained sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz—an exposure that can feed through to CPI depending on whether shipping conditions deteriorate or reopen. SS WealthStreet founder Sugandha Sachdeva told Reuters that crude oil remains “caught between opposing forces” as markets weigh the possibility of a breakthrough over the strait versus Iran’s conditions for reopening.
Beyond oil, the immediate context for traders is the direction of prior U.S. macro releases. Cointelegraph previously noted that last month’s CPI and PPI results surprised to the downside, with CPI posting its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Labor-market data also contributed to a cooler tone: after nonfarm payrolls fell short of expectations, Cointelegraph reported weaker-than-expected labor conditions and rising odds of a more dovish Fed.
Those changes have mattered for rate pricing. As reflected in CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed pausing at its Sept. 16 meeting stood at 56% as of Monday, after earlier market pricing leaned more heavily toward a hike. In the latest edition of its newsletter, Mosaic Asset Company wrote that a week earlier implied odds favored a September rate hike, but now pricing “slightly favor the Fed keeping rates on hold,” with just one hike before pausing well into next year.
Yen dynamics return to the center of risk-asset debate
While U.S. data drives part of the narrative, traders are also monitoring currency flows that can alter liquidity across global markets. The Japanese yen has remained a focal point after a rare episode of U.S.-Japanese coordination—the first joint intervention since the late 1990s.
After USD/JPY weakened to its lowest levels since 1986 earlier in August, the New York Fed—acting on behalf of the U.S. Treasury—purchased yen using euros via the Exchange Stabilization Fund. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated at the time that further interventions were possible, arguing the U.S. strongly supports Japan’s steps to correct what he characterized as the yen’s “substantial undervaluation.”
In the days since, the yen’s trajectory has been mixed. It initially strengthened toward around 156 per dollar, but has since weakened again and is back above 158.50, edging toward the key 160 level.
Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks cautioned that intervention mechanics alone may not reverse the underlying trend. In a Substack post, he compared the effectiveness of the move to prior “rate check” dynamics around Japan’s Feb. 8 general election, arguing that price action didn’t show meaningful reversal and suggesting the intervention is unlikely to stop the yen’s weakening trend.
Earlier Cointelegraph reporting also flagged how the yen carry trade can influence liquidity conditions for crypto and other risk assets. QCP Capital similarly emphasized that the larger issue is whether higher Japanese yields change incentives for investors to allocate capital overseas.
BTC technical focus shifts to $65,800 while traders watch liquidity
Bitcoin’s price action during the week has been defined by a blend of breakout expectations and resistance from widely watched moving averages. Into Sunday’s weekly close, BTC printed month-to-date highs around $65,420, then consolidated as traditional markets reopened.
TradingView data continued to show BTC/USD stuck in a range, with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) acting as overhead resistance near $65,827. Still, trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that three breakout signals are forming based on traditional momentum indicators. He reported “strong” bullish divergences in both MACD and RSI across three-day and one-week time frames—an approach that looks for confirmation even when price temporarily stalls.
In van de Poppe’s framework, the pivotal line is $65,800. He suggested that if the $65,800 weekly level breaks, a “volatile move upwards” could follow due to short-side liquidity being forced to exit after consolidation. Separately, CoinGlass order-book-derived liquidation mapping also highlighted $65,800 as a key area where liquidations could cluster if price turns decisively.
At the time of reporting, cross-crypto short liquidations over the prior 24 hours were $53 million, indicating that while the market is not in a full-scale expansion phase, traders are positioned enough for moves around key levels to have feedback effects.
Other technical commentary from CryptoQuant contributor Andrew Kamsky pointed to a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart and described a potential “decision window” for the range by Aug. 17. He framed scenarios where rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K followed by higher lows could build toward an ascending triangle, while a move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup and a break below support would invalidate it. As an upside possibility, Kamsky cited $72,000 as a “possible scenario.”
Onchain signals: large-wallet accumulation rises as smaller holders reduce
The most constructive onchain development comes from growing activity among large Bitcoin investors. CryptoQuant’s analysis points to a sharp shift toward accumulation among addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC. On a 60-day rolling basis, that cohort’s balance increased by 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9, which CryptoQuant described as the largest uptick since March 15.
CryptoQuant also emphasized that the latest reading nearly doubled the 23,238 BTC accumulation peak recorded in mid-March. In other words, the acceleration has not merely continued—it has intensified.
Just as importantly, CryptoQuant described a divergence between large holders and smaller addresses. After accumulating through July, wallets holding between 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC distributed roughly 9,700 BTC over the same 60-day window through Aug. 9. The implication is that large holders are adding exposure while smaller participants are trimming, a positioning split that matters because it can influence how quickly demand absorbs sell pressure if price tests lower support levels.
This week’s accumulation narrative also fits into a broader backdrop of participation concerns. Cointelegraph previously cited CryptoQuant-era observations of strong accumulation between $62,000 and $65,000 alongside order-book and market-structure debates. Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft added another angle in social commentary: he described spot markets as “virtually dead,” pointing to a daily spot turnover ratio of 0.32% (the lowest level in his data) and a roughly 64% year-over-year decline in dollar volume.
Cycle indicators still warn that the bear market may be lingering
Even with accumulation data and bullish divergences on short-term charts, some analysts argue the market remains in a late-stage bear-market condition. Schultze-Kraft discussed a record “capitulation” phase in a basket of 45 indicators tracked via Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. In his description, the market is in its coldest stretch since FTX—late in the bear cycle but not yet in the most definitive “deep blue” stage that previously marked a floor.
CoinGlass offers a similar framing through its Bull Cycle Peak Indicators compilation, which it reports as sitting 32% toward an ideal “sell” zone. Taken together, these approaches suggest that while selective accumulation and liquidity dynamics may support short-term upside attempts, structural reversal confirmation may still require more broad participation than what spot metrics currently indicate.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital added a historical lens by comparing the current chart structure to the 2022 bear market. In a weekend post, he argued that Bitcoin was forming lower highs relative to a July upside wick in 2022, while August produced a higher high in that earlier cycle. He also reiterated that Bitcoin has yet to reclaim the 50-month EMA around $65,827—presenting the same technical ingredient that often precedes a deeper bear-market capitulation phase.
For traders and investors, the next decision points are likely to converge: how CPI and PPI shift Fed expectations, whether the yen’s approach to 160 changes global liquidity incentives, and whether BTC can turn $65,800 into a confirmed support level rather than another range boundary. Watch whether onchain accumulation broadens alongside spot activity—or whether the market continues to show strength dominated by a smaller set of large holders.
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