Bitcoin’s 2026 downcycle may be nearing its end, at least according to a composite on-chain profitability gauge tracked by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a fresh read of the platform’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the metric has flipped from negative to positive for the first time since early October 2025—an update that Ju framed as the end of the current bear phase.
The move matters because the indicator is built from multiple realized-and-unrealized profit/loss measures, aiming to capture broader shifts in investor behavior rather than short-term price swings. Still, other parts of the market are sending a more cautious message, with liquidity and demand questions continuing to hang over attempts to sustain higher prices.
Key takeaways
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s 2026 bear cycle is over after the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator returned a positive reading.
- The Bull/Bear indicator is based on CryptoQuant’s P&L Index and its distance from a 365-day moving average, aggregating several profitability metrics.
- CryptoQuant data shows the indicator at “extreme bear” in early February 2026 before turning positive again by Aug. 26.
- Past performance suggests the metric can help confirm macro trend changes, including a similar bear-to-bull transition in early 2023.
- Despite the profitability signal, analysts continue to flag potential liquidity and resistance hurdles that could limit follow-through.
A profitability composite turns bullish after months
According to CryptoQuant data highlighted by Ki Young Ju in an X post on Wednesday, Bitcoin has exited its 2026 bear market as the CryptoQuant Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator printed its first positive value since early October 2025.
Ju pointed to a shift in the indicator’s sign—moving from negative readings back into positive territory—describing it as “The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” The specific datapoint, as provided by CryptoQuant, is a reading of 0.042, placing the metric in its “bull” bracket.
To understand why a profitability measure is being treated as a cycle signal, the indicator’s construction is key. The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, originally developed by CryptoQuant’s head of research. In turn, the P&L Index pulls together multiple on-chain profitability components, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). By tracking how far the composite sits from its 365-day moving average, the system attempts to identify phases where investor profit and loss dynamics improve meaningfully.
In this framework, values above zero indicate bullish phases in the BTC price cycle—an approach that aims to filter out noise and focus on longer-term behavior of holders, not just momentum on a particular week.
From “extreme bear” to bull territory
CryptoQuant’s timeline shows the indicator hit cycle lows on Feb. 5, 2026, when the metric recorded -1.244—labeled by the source as “extreme bear” conditions. That date corresponds with a period when Bitcoin fell sharply; one related report noted BTC/USD dropping to around $60,000 at the time. (Earlier coverage referenced by the article links to Cointelegraph’s report about BTC falling to $60k.)
For the latest full data point used to assess the indicator, CryptoQuant’s dashboard reports the Bull/Bear metric as of Aug. 26. On that date, the composite had moved back into positive territory, registering 0.042. In other words, the same probabilistic “cycle lens” that marked the downtrend’s extremity earlier in the year has now flipped, suggesting profitability dynamics are improving across the holder base.
Ju also argued that this methodology has historically been able to confirm major trend transitions. He noted that the Bull/Bear indicator previously called the end of the prior bear market when upside returned in early 2023—supporting the idea that the tool is intended for cycle confirmation rather than tactical timing.
But market strength isn’t universally agreed
Even with on-chain profitability improving, the broader market picture appears less settled. In recent weeks, multiple indicators have been showing signs of recovery—among them the relative strength index (RSI), which Cointelegraph previously discussed as turning bullish with similarities to recoveries seen at the end of 2022.
However, consensus is not fully formed, and some traders continue to emphasize that BTC’s move higher may still face structural obstacles. Earlier coverage cited concerns that a lack of demand could cause BTC/USD to slide back down, pointing to “multiple liquidity hurdles” positioned above spot price. Liquidity matters in this context because even if profitability improves, sustained price appreciation typically requires enough buy-side depth to absorb selling pressure at higher levels.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital also underscored the importance of near-term confirmation. In an X post, he described the August monthly close as “pivotal” for the fate of the recovery. His view references a downward-sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October of the prior year—an area that can act as a ceiling unless price can close convincingly above it.
Put simply, the profitability indicator suggests the “bear” investor phase may be transitioning, while other signals focus on whether demand and liquidity are strong enough to carry the breakout beyond resistance.
What to watch next if the cycle claim is right
For investors and traders, the immediate question is whether this on-chain cycle shift leads to price follow-through—or whether it stalls when liquidity tightens at key resistance zones. The next useful checkpoint is how Bitcoin behaves around levels highlighted by market commentary, particularly any confirmation after the close period referenced by Rekt Capital, while also monitoring whether on-chain profitability metrics remain above the indicator’s bullish threshold rather than flipping back.
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