Bitcoin has already slid dramatically from its 2025 peak, but investor Michael Terpin says the market still hasn’t reached a true “bottom” that typically follows capitulation. Speaking to Cointelegraph on its Trade Secrets show, Terpin argued that BTC could fall much further before stabilization—potentially aligning with a decline of around 66% from its October 2025 all-time high.
Terpin pointed to an expected drop to the low-to-mid $40,000s, framing the move as part of a continuing market cycle rather than an abrupt end to volatility. He also cautioned investors against assuming that institutional participation and spot exchange-traded funds automatically eliminate the traditional boom-and-bust rhythm.
Key takeaways
- Michael Terpin expects Bitcoin could still decline about 66% from its October 2025 all-time high, implying prices around $43,500.
- He said one hallmark of a real market bottom is that prices do not “pop back” quickly after the low.
- Terpin argued greed and mis-timing have historically derailed traders, referencing prior cycle behavior around the 2021 peak.
- He maintained that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is not finished, despite debate that ETFs and institutions have changed the pattern.
- Terpin warned investors to understand the risks of buying corporate vehicles exposed to Bitcoin—such as Strategy—rather than holding BTC directly.
Terpin’s “rock bottom” framework for Bitcoin
In his conversation with Cointelegraph, Terpin emphasized that markets often end only after a specific kind of capitulation—one that doesn’t quickly reverse. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin said.
That idea is central to why he believes BTC’s current drawdown is not enough to confirm a floor. Rather than treating volatility as proof of a finished cycle, Terpin suggested the market needs to pass through a deeper phase of selling pressure before recovery becomes durable.
Cointelegraph previously published Terpin’s remarks via a Trade Secrets segment on X.
Why Terpin thinks pain isn’t over
Terpin’s forecast is built around the magnitude of the remaining decline from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. He told Cointelegraph he expects Bitcoin to fall roughly “66%,” which would put the asset in the $40,000 range—he said “down into the 40s,” and characterized that as “about where we’re gonna go.”
On a purely arithmetic basis, a 66% drop from $126,100 corresponds to a price near $43,500. Terpin noted this level is not far from where Bitcoin last traded in a similar range—around early February 2024—according to the price levels referenced in his remarks.
While Terpin’s outlook is bearish, the bigger message is about timing and confirmation. He argued that traders frequently confuse sharp declines or short-lived bottoms with the end of a cycle. To him, the bottom only counts when it behaves like one—meaning it doesn’t instantly bounce as if the selling phase never happened.
Lessons from prior cycles: the greed trap and macro pressure
Terpin linked his bottom framework to recurring trader behavior. He said greed repeatedly causes people to misjudge cycles—an issue he illustrated by pointing back to Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle top. After BTC reached around $69,000 in November 2021, Terpin said the market transitioned into a prolonged consolidation period, and many traders delayed exit decisions by betting on higher prices.
He recalled the late-2021 optimism that Bitcoin would reach $100,000—along with the “laser eyes” meme that circulated during the rally. Terpin argued that traders had time to reduce risk when Bitcoin was still trading above $60,000, but that expectations and momentum incentives led many to hold too long.
Terpin also highlighted a macro backdrop that he believes hurt successive cycles. He said there have been “two cycles in a row now with bad macro,” arguing that investors expected improvements that did not materialize. He referenced the assumption that political developments would be supportive but said that tariffs and other factors contributed to ongoing conditions that facilitated manipulation.
In the same discussion, Terpin noted that Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election—an example he used to show how macro and policy narratives can still intersect with market performance, even if the broader cycle outcome is not what traders expect.
The four-year cycle debate and the role of institutions
Terpin described himself as a believer in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle and pushed back against the 2025 argument that institutional adoption and spot ETF launches have permanently altered Bitcoin’s typical “boom-and-bust” pattern. In his view, the presence of institutions does not remove the incentives for selling.
“I think we’re still following the halvings,” Terpin said. He added that the idea that markets only go up from here because “institutions don’t sell” is “garbage,” emphasizing: “Institutions absolutely sell.”
For investors, that stance matters because it frames ETF/institutional adoption as potentially changing liquidity channels rather than eliminating cycle dynamics. If Terpin is right, the key risk for late-cycle buyers is assuming that institutional flows will permanently suppress downside—when, in his interpretation, sell-side pressure remains a feature of the cycle.
Bitcoin versus Bitcoin exposure stocks, including Strategy
Terpin’s caution extended beyond timing to vehicle selection. He said investors should recognize the structural differences between owning Bitcoin directly and buying companies that hold or profit from Bitcoin exposure. He specifically addressed Strategy and the accumulation strategy associated with its executive chairman Michael Saylor.
Terpin acknowledged Strategy’s track record but urged investors not to treat corporate share performance as a clean substitute for holding BTC. “Historically, you’ve done better if you buy Strategy at the bottom and then sell it at the top than if you buy the Bitcoin,” he told Cointelegraph.
However, he stressed that the outcome depends on continued execution—one reason he said he would personally “rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.” He pointed to 2022 as an example of how Bitcoin-linked corporate strategies can still experience severe drawdowns when Bitcoin itself moves against them, noting that Saylor avoided being “wrecked” then even while being underwater with his Bitcoin holdings.
Terpin also contrasted portfolio management needs between Bitcoin and altcoins. He suggested that investors looking for a less hands-on approach should prefer BTC over altcoins because altcoins require more active attention through the cycle. He framed the “cycle strategy” as something investors can revisit only a few times over the four-year period: assess when the market is nearing a bottom and when it is getting close to a top, while spending the remainder of the time away from constant trading.
For readers, the next watch items are straightforward but demanding: whether Bitcoin shows the kind of bottom behavior Terpin describes—particularly a lack of immediate “pop back”—and how sell-side dynamics respond as the market tests lower levels. Terpin’s argument is less about predicting an exact number and more about demanding confirmation that the cycle’s pain has genuinely run its course.
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