Bitcoin’s next major move could be shaped by a seasonal pattern, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Klippsten suggested that BTC may form a bottom in October before staging a recovery toward roughly $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving.
Klippsten’s framing also includes a potentially painful downside scenario: in his view, Bitcoin could drop to the $57,000 area—or even as low as $53,000—before any rebound. At the same time, other market analysts are watching for signs of an earlier bear-market bottom, pointing to an August threshold based on monthly closes.
Key takeaways
- Klippsten expects Bitcoin could bottom in October after a peak above $126,000 in early October 2025, then recover toward about $130,000 before the 2028 halving.
- In his downside scenario, BTC may fall to around $57,000 or even $53,000 before a “quick recovery.”
- Klippsten argues long-term holder accumulation could shift timing earlier than past cycles, referencing a record share of supply held by long-term investors.
- Markus Thielen of 10x Research says a bear-market bottom could be confirmed in August if Bitcoin posts a monthly close above $63,000.
- Klippsten believes altcoins are unlikely to compete with Bitcoin as “money,” while noting that centralized crypto firms may ultimately be pulled under traditional finance regulation.
Why October is on the table for Bitcoin’s “cycle bottom”
Klippsten’s October call is rooted in what he says is a recurring timeline across prior bull-market peaks. He argued that Bitcoin has tended to bottom roughly 12 months after each previous bull-market top. However, he also warned that relying on only a handful of completed cycles is risky—implying investors should treat this as a hypothesis rather than a guaranteed schedule.
The timing he referenced is anchored to BTC’s performance in early October 2025, when Bitcoin reportedly peaked above $126,000. From that peak, Klippsten’s expectation is that the market should bottom in October, followed by recovery into the next phase of the broader cycle.
Importantly, Klippsten’s view is not simply “up from here.” He also pointed to a possible deeper drawdown before a rebound, saying Bitcoin could fall to about $57,000 or potentially $53,000—suggesting that any October bottom would likely arrive after further weakness rather than immediately.
Holder accumulation and the possibility of earlier bottoms
Klippsten’s September-to-October thesis builds on an earlier argument he made in a June conversation with Cointelegraph. In that earlier interview, he suggested BTC might bottom earlier than in past cycles if long-term holders continue accumulating record levels of supply.
Cointelegraph previously reported that Klippsten tied the idea to “record” long-term holder participation, citing 14.7 million BTC as a share held by long-term investors. In the latest discussion, he maintained the idea that accumulation could influence the timing of a bottom—one reason why other analysts may be looking at earlier confirmations than October.
The practical takeaway for market participants is that timing indicators may depend on whether distribution versus accumulation dominates during the downturn. If long-term holders continue to absorb supply, the market could transition faster than a strict historical average would suggest—though Klippsten’s range still includes a potential late-cycle risk floor around the low-$50,000s.
Other analysts target August with a simple monthly signal
While Klippsten focused on October, not every analyst agrees on the month. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August if BTC achieves a monthly close above $63,000.
Thielen’s argument is tied to how certain cycle indicators react to key trend confirmations. According to Cointelegraph, a successful August close above $63,000 would turn several of 10x Research’s indicators bullish—essentially framing $63,000 not just as a number to watch, but as a trigger that could change the model’s stance on the market’s trend.
For investors, the difference between “October likely” and “August possible” is more than calendar trivia. It can affect how people manage exposure during drawdowns, how they interpret risk levels, and how quickly they expect liquidity to return. Until BTC clarifies its direction through those month-end thresholds, any month-by-month bottom narrative remains conditional.
Klippsten’s take on altcoins: fewer bets, more regulation
Beyond timing, Klippsten argued that altcoins are losing their credibility as alternatives to Bitcoin as a medium of value. He described them as “basically dead” as competitors to Bitcoin as money and said the “best outcome” for crypto and decentralized finance would be integration into traditional finance—what he referred to as “TradFi.”
Asked about altcoins that may still outperform, he pointed to Hyperliquid as an example of a centralized business that could eventually be treated like part of the traditional financial system. In a quote carried by Cointelegraph, Klippsten said that if a centralized business has a token, regulators and traditional finance may eventually absorb it, viewing it as an exchange and a bank.
That view aligns with how some market observers are interpreting institutional involvement: regulatory pressure and compliance frameworks could determine which crypto products survive and how tokens are structured. Even when an altcoin sees strong traction, the question becomes whether it can evolve into something that fits existing regulatory categories.
Hyperliquid has recently attracted measurable attention on-chain and in DeFi revenue rankings. Cointelegraph cited DefiLlama data showing Hyperliquid generated $5.9 million in revenue during the past week and ranked as the industry’s fifth-largest DeFi protocol by weekly revenue. Cointelegraph also reported that the Hyperliquid HYPE token was up 130% year-to-date, while Bitcoin fell 28% over the same period, according to TradingView.
At the same time, Cointelegraph included a separate perspective from market maker Wintermute. In a July report, Wintermute argued that institutional participation has narrowed altcoin rallies. The firm said liquidity tends to concentrate in assets that institutions favor, while activity across crypto’s “long tail” weakens—suggesting that “altseason” dynamics may be changing from broad-based rotations into more selective bursts.
What to watch next: bottoms versus triggers, not narratives
Whether Bitcoin bottoms in August or October, the most actionable signal may be confirmation through month-end levels and follow-through after sharp selloffs—especially if long-term holder accumulation continues to provide structural support. Separately, Klippsten’s warnings about altcoins “as money” raise a distinct question for traders and builders: will performance continue to be driven by liquidity and token incentives, or will regulation and institutional frameworks progressively reshape what survives in practice?
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