Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $79,000 early on Tuesday after the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike rose to around 60% following Friday’s jobs data. Some analysts believe the flagship cryptocurrency will remain under $82,000 until the Fed decides on interest rates.
BTC fell 1.55% on Monday and closed at $79,091. It slipped further during the ongoing session and is down nearly 1% at $78,364.
Bitcoin (BTC) Decline Continues
BTC’s latest rally took the price past $82,000 on Friday, reaching an intraday high of $82,282 before losing momentum thanks to substantial selling pressure above $82,000. However, price action wavered following Friday’s jobs report. The report revealed the US added 162,000 jobs in August against the expected 55,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. CME’s FedWatch tool increased the likelihood of a 25 bps interest rate hike to 60% following the report.
The US Dollar and Treasury yields also rose following the report, pressuring BTC and other rate-sensitive assets. LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger believes BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market were displaying considerable resistance, stating in comments to The Block,
“The crypto market continues to display exceptional resilience despite having been presented with plenty of reasons to correct. Bitcoin is holding near $80,000 following an aggressive August rally that pushed momentum into overbought territory.”
Kruger also highlighted that crypto had faced substantial headwinds, including US-Iran tensions, rising oil prices, and higher Treasury yields.
“What stands out is that crypto has absorbed these headwinds without suffering meaningful technical damage.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Could Remain Muted Until Fed Decision
Bitfinex analysts believe BTC is consolidating with an upside bias, not a confirmed breakout. For the moment, sustained ETF demand is absorbing the pressure from the Treasury yield increase and possible interest rate hike. BTC’s latest decline comes after another attempt to reclaim $80,000, as selling pressure pushed the price lower following Friday’s move to $82,282.
Meanwhile, analysts at CoinEx believe BTC will remain pinned under $82,000 until the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates. Jeff Ko, the chief analyst at CoinEx, stated,
“I expect compression into a tight range, capped around $82,000 with support at $78,000–$79,000.”
Ko added that if BTC loses the lower end of its support range, it could slip towards $77,000, a level also flagged by Bitfinex analysts. BTC must decisively clear $80,000 before it can retest the $82,000 resistance. However, this could be difficult. The recent August rally took BTC past $79,000. Technical indicators such as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) have reached overbought territory, while waning momentum and upper-level resistance increase the likelihood of a pullback.
Upcoming CPI And PPI Decisions Could Dictate Bitcoin Price Action
The biggest test for Bitcoin ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the interest rate decision. The odds of a 25 basis point hike have increased following Friday’s employment figures, which strengthened the argument for tighter policy. Manufacturing also expanded, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.6. However, elevated input costs suggest inflationary risk remains elevated. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected on September 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on September 11. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates on September 16. Ko stated,
“A hot print that pushes yields and the dollar sharply higher would be the cleanest test of Bitcoin’s resilience.”
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Help BTC Remain Near $80,000
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs extended the weekly inflow streak, recording $986.9 million in net inflows for the week ending September 4. The latest figures have taken the three-week inflows to $3.8 billion. Sustained ETF inflows have helped the flagship cryptocurrency remain near $80,000 despite rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and expectations of an interest rate hike.
However, Ko cautioned that the inflows do not confirm an accumulation phase.
“The $986.9 million of inflows brought the three-week total to roughly $3.8 billion, which is clearly constructive. But I would still like to see another few weeks of sustained net inflows, particularly if Bitcoin turns boring and trades sideways, before calling this a genuine accumulation phase.”
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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