Economist Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, says he expects Bitcoin treasury-focused companies to face stiffer competition from Michael Saylor’s Strategy because of its scale and financing strength. Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis, Ammous argued there is limited incentive to choose another Bitcoin treasury operator when Strategy is already positioned as the dominant holder and buyer.
Strategy’s advantages are grounded in its corporate balance sheet. According to the company’s Monday 8-K filing cited by Cointelegraph, Strategy reported 847,666 BTC purchased for $63.95 billion, alongside a reported $5.02 billion US dollar reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
Key takeaways
- Ammous says Strategy’s sheer Bitcoin holdings could make it difficult for smaller treasury companies to compete effectively.
- Strategy’s reported $5.02 billion US dollar reserve is intended to support dividend and debt obligations.
- Ammous frames corporate Bitcoin adoption as a reserve strategy for surplus cash rather than operational liquidity.
- He warned that Strategy is still not risk-free and said he personally prefers holding Bitcoin directly.
- Ammous expects Bitcoin’s next major cycle peak could be around 2029, while acknowledging another crash remains possible.
Why Strategy may be hard to outpace
Ammous’ core argument is that Strategy’s position gives it structural advantages. Because it holds substantially more Bitcoin than smaller treasury firms, it can, in his view, borrow at better rates—helping it keep funding costs lower while continuing to accumulate.
He also suggested that past drawdowns have not pushed Strategy close to liquidation. That matters for investors and market observers because treasury models often hinge on whether a company can meet obligations during periods when Bitcoin falls sharply or capital markets tighten.
In the interview, Ammous pointed to the company’s ability to keep servicing payments even after meaningful market setbacks. He emphasized that Strategy’s preparedness is supported by cash on hand, which he described as sufficient to make required payments through a larger-than-normal Bitcoin drawdown.
The financing model scrutiny—and what Strategy reportedly did
Strategy’s corporate Bitcoin playbook has drawn renewed attention during periods of volatility. Cointelegraph noted that the company’s financing model came under scrutiny over the summer when Bitcoin traded below $60,000 and Strategy’s STRC preferred stock traded far below its stated target price of $100.
In response to that pressure, the filing and Cointelegraph’s coverage indicate Strategy took multiple steps: it raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12%, repurchased shares, and built its cash reserve. The company also sold some Bitcoin—described in Cointelegraph’s related report—as a way to help fund dividends and the STRC repurchases before returning to further Bitcoin accumulation.
Ammous argued that this approach helps explain why a bigger drawdown might still leave the company in a “decent situation.” For readers, the practical takeaway is that treasury operators are often judged not just on long-term strategy, but on whether they can manage obligations—dividends, interest, and other commitments—during drawdowns without forcing unfavorable actions.
When corporate Bitcoin makes sense: surplus cash, not operations
Beyond the competitive angle, Ammous laid out how he believes businesses should think about holding Bitcoin. He said companies with positive cash flow can place surplus funds into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset.
Crucially, he distinguished those reserves from the cash needed for day-to-day operations—covering expenses required for daily, weekly, and monthly functioning. That framing matters because corporate Bitcoin strategies can fail when they blur the line between long-term treasury allocation and short-term liquidity demands.
Ammous went further by arguing that adoption could broaden. “I think pretty much every business should be doing this,” he said, reflecting his belief that Bitcoin functions differently from ordinary speculative assets when used as a reserve rather than a trading position.
Risks remain—and Ammous prefers direct Bitcoin exposure
Despite his pro-treasury stance, Ammous still cautioned that investing in Strategy carries risks. He said he favors holding Bitcoin directly rather than relying on a corporate vehicle.
That position highlights an important nuance for investors: even if a company has scale and liquidity buffers, corporate structures introduce additional layers—preferred equity terms, debt obligations, buyback dynamics, and how management chooses when to sell assets to fund payouts.
For traders and longer-term holders evaluating exposure, Ammous’ comments suggest that Strategy may be attractive for some market participants, but those seeking pure Bitcoin exposure may prefer direct ownership.
Cycle expectations: possible 2029 peak, but another crash is not off the table
Ammous also addressed Bitcoin’s near- and mid-term trajectory. He said Bitcoin has probably already bottomed, while still warning that another crash could take prices lower. In other words, the path forward may remain volatile even if the market has already passed its worst point.
Looking ahead to the next cycle, Ammous suggested a peak around 2029, with prices predominantly rising until then. He framed smaller drawdowns as potentially improving Bitcoin’s attractiveness to large asset managers, as memories of bear-market pain fade.
When asked for a price estimate for 2030, Ammous offered a “best guess” of roughly $200,000. He said his reasoning was based on a Bitcoin power-law model, choosing a figure near the lower end of the range he referenced. Still, he added a caution: “I wouldn’t bet on it.”
For readers, the key implication is not the exact price target, but the probabilistic posture—acknowledging that forecasts can be wrong even when modeled, and that drawdowns can alter investor behavior long after a cycle bottom appears.
As Bitcoin treasury companies compete for balance-sheet dominance, the next thing investors should watch is whether Strategy’s cash and financing structure can consistently support obligations through volatility—and whether other firms can match that resilience without relying on similarly disruptive sell-offs during market stress.
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