CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Eyes Reclaim of 20-Month Trend Line Before ATH

Bitcoin is testing a key long-term trend line once again, as onchain analysts say the market is attempting to reclaim the so-called “inflection frontier” associated with prior cycle turnarounds. The latest focus is on the 20-month simple moving average (SMA), which CryptoQuant reports is currently at $87,165 (as of Oct. 16).

According to CryptoQuant’s market-cycle framework built around Bollinger Bands, the area around this 20-month SMA has historically functioned as a pivot between accumulation phases and broader trend expansions. CryptoQuant contributors also argue the bull-bear cycle indicator continues to point to Bitcoin remaining in a bull market regime, despite recent volatility.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant says BTC/USD is challenging its 20-month SMA at $87,165, a level it describes as an “inflection frontier.”


• The Bollinger Bands framework places the upper band around $121,640 and the lower band near $52,694.


• CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals tool indicates Bitcoin may be positioned to reclaim a long-lost cycle boundary, last lost in December 2025.


• CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator remains bullish, though traders should still watch for resistance around the recent rally’s upper levels.

Bitcoin’s next test: the 20-month SMA

CryptoQuant’s analysis centers on Bitcoin’s price action relative to the 20-month SMA. In its construction, this SMA is used as the central reference line for Bollinger Bands—adding an upper and lower band based on standard deviation.

CryptoQuant reports that the current 20-month SMA stands at $87,165 (Oct. 16). The same framework implies a wide band spread: the upper band at $121,640 and the lower band near $52,694. In CryptoQuant’s terminology, the region between the lower band and the SMA is considered an “accumulation base,” while the SMA itself acts as an “inflection frontier.”

The “inflection frontier” language matters because CryptoQuant ties it to a past investor capitulation point—specifically noting that the line was most recently lost in December 2025, when BTC/USD broke below it after previously trading above.

Now, with BTC/USD aiming to move back through that frontier from below, the question for market participants is whether the historical pattern of breakouts translating into cycle expansions will repeat. CryptoQuant’s contributors argue that when these longer-term boundaries are reclaimed, the market has often been able to push toward new cycle highs.

Why reclaiming the “inflection frontier” is pivotal

In a blog post summarized by CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain, the analyst claims the market has completed its “reset” process. The comment was framed in relation to the time elapsed since Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025.

CryptoQuant clarifies that Bollinger Bands are not designed as direct buy/sell triggers. However, the platform’s market cycle signals tool uses that structure to describe how different market participants may behave as price moves from lower bands toward the SMA and beyond. In this view, the “smart money” component is associated with taking profit as BTC/USD reaches the upper band.

At the moment, CryptoQuant points out that the upper band is currently positioned just under Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high. It notes a $126,200 all-time high recorded in October 2025. The implication is not that the upper band equals a guaranteed top, but that the move toward it has historically mapped to later stages within the cycle.

CryptoQuant also highlights a psychological mismatch it associates with retail positioning. In the same commentary, GugaOnChain contrasts “retail fears” about the market’s current levels with the onchain indicator’s message that the market is not yet finished. He referenced the market’s support zone around $82,442 while pointing to a broader, longer-cycle outlook.

Resistance confluence and exchange liquidity concerns

Beyond the moving average itself, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the 20-month SMA aligns with other relevant price structure. It notes confluence with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening level at $87,490, framing this as an additional reason the SMA area could attract attention from both trend followers and traders looking for a reaction.

However, onchain and technical confluence does not eliminate the risk of friction. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph (referenced within the CryptoQuant write-up) reported that large walls of ask liquidity remain near exchange order books. In practical terms, that kind of liquidity can slow upward progress if buyers are not able to absorb supply at key price points.

For traders, the takeaway is that the $87k region is not just a statistical line. If CryptoQuant’s “inflection frontier” framing is correct, that level could become the battleground where Bitcoin decides whether it continues toward the upper band region—or stalls and revisits lower accumulation dynamics.

CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator stays in bullish territory

CryptoQuant’s broader posture remains optimistic, even as risk assets face macroeconomic pressures. The platform maintains that Bitcoin continues to sit within a bull market classification based on its bull-bear market cycle indicator, which draws on multiple profitability-related onchain metrics.

That bullish framing ties into how some analysts view the market’s momentum turning point. In late August, CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the bear market was “over,” using readings from the same cycle indicator. The indicator reportedly showed a reading of 0.186 versus 0.042 in August—suggesting improving conditions as the market progressed.

Later, contributors also pointed to multiple onchain metrics as grounds for “cautious optimism” for bullish momentum to return through the end of October. The focus was on three onchain metrics flagged by XWIN Research Japan, as discussed in earlier coverage from Cointelegraph.

Taken together, the message is consistent: CryptoQuant sees the current phase not as the end of the cycle, but as a stage where conditions for broader expansion are re-emerging—though the practical outcome still depends on whether BTC/USD can clear the SMA and the liquidity overhangs near it.

Going forward, investors and traders should watch whether Bitcoin can hold above the 20-month SMA area and whether the market cycle signals continue to strengthen rather than roll over. The next “decision points” are likely to be the frontier reclaim attempt around $87,165–$87,490 and the path toward the upper Bollinger band region near $121,640, where CryptoQuant suggests smarter profit-taking has historically become more prominent.

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