Bitcoin stayed above its 100-day moving average on Monday as investors looked ahead to a heavy U.S. macro calendar and a fresh round of big-company earnings. The timing matters: the market is coming off Bitcoin’s weakest October in more than a decade, and traders are also weighing how the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections could shape risk sentiment.
At the same time, prediction markets are pricing in a strong chance of Democrats taking control of the U.S. House. That backdrop is intersecting with expectations for Federal Reserve policy at the December FOMC meeting—an alignment that has historically influenced crypto via liquidity and interest-rate expectations.
Key takeaways
- Kalshi’s market pricing put Democrats’ odds of winning control of the U.S. House at 93.6% as of Monday.
- Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
- Bitcoin was holding above its 100-day moving average after a late-October selloff that marked its weakest month since 2014.
- Upcoming U.S. jobs data and major tech earnings—particularly Apple and Palantir—are poised to test market expectations in the near term.
Midterms, policy expectations, and a historically weak month
Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections will determine control of Congress. Kalshi’s betting market for House control placed Democrats at a 93.6% probability of winning as of Monday.
The political risk premium is not only about election results, but also about what follows legislatively. President Donald Trump said he would use his veto power if Democrats gained control of Congress, according to coverage from the New York Post.
Historically, Bitcoin has struggled around midterm cycles. The article notes that Bitcoin finished the fourth quarter lower in each of the past three midterm election years—falling 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018, and 14.8% in 2022. All three periods occurred during Bitcoin bear markets, which helps explain why traders tend to treat midterms as a catalyst for volatility rather than a reliable directional signal.
Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform IntoTheCryptoverse, argued that midterm-driven weakness can sometimes create buying opportunities for longer-term holders. In a post on X dated Friday, Cowen said that the “Q4 dump of midterm years” often provides opportunities for those who sold earlier to re-enter. He previously referenced bear-market bottoms aligning with the second half of midterm years.
Reflecting that pressure, BTC/USD was down 6.4% for the quarter as of Monday, after October closed as Bitcoin’s weakest month since 2014, according to CoinGlass.
Jobs data and the Fed: why traders are watching the calendar
Tuesday’s jobs-related backdrop begins with September job openings data, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for October. The payrolls number is expected to rise by 65,000, based on the forecast cited in the article. Markets are also factoring in that September added 29,000 jobs, a result below the earlier 84,000 consensus forecast mentioned in the report.
In practical terms for crypto, weaker labor-market signals can shift expectations toward a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. The article links that dynamic to a potential boost for crypto and other risk assets by improving liquidity expectations.
Beyond the core data releases, multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
Policy expectations are currently anchored by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The article says that the tool shows markets expecting a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, with those odds ranging between 67% and 75% over the past month.
On Friday, the University of Michigan will also publish a preliminary November consumer sentiment survey, including consumers’ inflation expectations—another input that can move rate expectations quickly.
Earnings-week risk: tech sell-off echoes into crypto trading
Alongside macro data, markets are digesting a corporate earnings wave. The article notes that 20% of S&P 500 companies are due to report over the coming days, with Apple and Palantir highlighted as major tech names scheduled to report after the market close on Monday.
This matters because the market’s interpretation of earnings and forward guidance has become especially sensitive after last week’s tech sell-off. The report points to concerns around AI spending and profitability, which were reignited when companies delivered disappointing guidance, and it cites economist Mohamed El-Erian’s view that markets are now “acutely sensitive” to tech-sector headlines.
El-Erian’s commentary, published on Substack and referenced in the article, argued that investors are focused on whether heavy capital expenditures across the sector can translate into measurable return on investment and sustained revenue growth. That focus can spill over into broader risk appetite—affecting crypto indirectly through liquidity conditions and cross-asset correlation.
Bitcoin technicals: support held near the 100-day average
While macro and earnings headlines set the tone, Bitcoin’s chart remains tied to key moving averages. After closing October down 7.3%, BTC/USD held above a moving average that has provided support since mid-August.
TradingView data cited in the article showed BTC/USD staying above last week’s low near $76,300 without revisiting it around the monthly close. That low was close to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD. Since then, the 100-day SMA reportedly rose to $76,548.
The report also says Bitcoin reclaimed its 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) ahead of the monthly close, which the article places at $77,759. Together, those levels suggest that despite October’s weakness, technical support has not been decisively broken.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s weekly structure to the rebound that followed its 2022 bear-market low. During the earlier recovery, BTC/USD formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, retested support at the right shoulder, briefly dipped below it, and then rallied.
According to the article, last week’s move back down to $76,300 returned price to what Rekt Capital identified as the right-shoulder support on the current chart. Rekt Capital said he is watching whether Bitcoin will show a “downside deviation” below that level over the next few weeks, using the comparison as a framework for what comes next.
For traders and investors, the immediate implication is straightforward: if Bitcoin holds the 100-day moving average area and avoids deeper breakdowns, it supports the idea of stabilization after a historically weak month. If it slips below those technical guardrails while macro expectations harden, the midterm-and-Fed setup could intensify selling pressure rather than easing it.
Over the next few sessions, attention will likely center on how the U.S. labor reports and December rate expectations evolve alongside Apple and Palantir’s earnings—while technical watchers assess whether Bitcoin can maintain support near the 100-day average or whether the coming weeks bring the downside “deviation” Rekt Capital is flagging.
https://www.cryptobreaking.com/bitcoin-prepares-for-us-midterms/?utm_source=blogger%20&utm_medium=social_auto&utm_campaign=Bitcoin%20Prepares%20for%20US%20Midterms:%20Key%20BTC%20Developments%20This%20Week%20
Comments
Post a Comment